Effects of consumer preferences on the convergence of mobile telecommunications devices Yeonbae Kim, Jeong-Dong Lee*, and Daeyoung Koh Techno-Economics and Policy Program, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shinlim-Dong, Kwanak-Ku, Seoul, 151-742, Korea Republic Amidst the overall trend of convergence in information technology, device convergence is noteworthy. This study looks at the possible direction of device convergence based on consumer preferences for the main attributes of the mobile terminal of the future. Conjoint analysis and a mixed logit model using a Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling are used to learn consumer preferences. Results show that consumers generally prefer a keyboard and a medium-sized display, although at present most consumers are indifferent to whether the terminal provides high-quality Internet service and to whether it operates many kinds of application programs or programs originally designed for personal computers. Given the heterogeneity of consumer preferences, partial, rather than perfect, device convergence is anticipated. Implications for the future of device convergence and how it will affect other types of convergence are drawn. I. Introduction Convergence represents an important trend in infor- mation technology (IT). Several particular types of convergence are noted. For example, in service convergence various services are incorporated into one converged service. In network convergence sepa- rate networks are incorporated into a converged network; this has happened to the extent that the distinction between wired and wireless networks is no longer meaningful. In marketing and business convergence, many value chains or business strategies are changed to a newer and converged chain or strategy. In interface and terminal convergence, also referred to as device convergence, many kinds of extant devices and terminals used for various means are incorporated into a new, converged device that enables consumers to use the converged services and connect to the converged network. Convergence itself is an important trend not only in IT but also with respect to twenty-first century society as a whole. As time goes by, given the rapid progress in information technologies and chang- ing consumer needs, the trend towards the over- lapping and incorporating of application fields, and the blurring of distinctions between previously separate industries, will become ever more preva- lent (Blackman, 1998). Convergence will be a new driving force for IT industries suffering from market saturation as it will create new demands, drastically change market structures, require new policies and regulations, inspire firms to set new research-and- development or business strategies, and affect the whole society. * Corresponding author. E-mail: leejd@snu.ac.kr Applied Economics ISSN 0003–6846 print/ISSN 1466–4283 online # 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd 817 http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000337398 Applied Economics, 2005, 37, 817–826