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IMPACT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
SELECTED MONETARY POLICY
ENVIRNMENTS ON CAPITAL MARKET
PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA
IORTYER AONDOVER DOMINIC
Federal University Lokoja, Kogi State Nigeria
Email: dominic.iortyer@fulokoja.edu.ng ORCID ID 0009-0002-3002-2676
&
MUSA DANIEL OJONAGO
Federal University Lokoja, kogi state Nigeria
Email:Daniel.musa@fulokoja.edu.ng
Abstract
Capital market performance is influenced by a variety of factors; consequently, this article examined the impact
of certain macroeconomic settings, as measured by the real economic growth (RGDP), real interest rate (INT),
and real exchange rate (EXR), on capital market performance in Nigeria. Market capitalization (MCAP) serves
as a proxy for capital markets. Estimation was based on annual time series for the variables spanning 1986–
2023. The dynamic Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique was utilized to calculate effects of the
regresors on the regresand in both the short and long run. The results showed that the capital market reacts both
short- and long-term to shifts in macroeconomic conditions. In light of the results,the study advocated desired
economic policy actions that could improve the stable macroeconomic environment for long-term growth and
performance of Nigeria's capital markets.
Key words: Market capitalization, Capital market, real economic growth rate, Interest rate, Exchange rate.
1.0 INTRODUCTION
The impact of macroeconomic variables on capital market performance is relevant to policy in both
industrialized and emerging market nations. This proved the nexus between macroeconomic variables and
capital market operation. It has been a major discourse within the financial economic’ circles, investors,
policymakers and academics. (Wycliffe and Peter, 2019). This is because, a stable and conducive
macroeconomic environment stimulates capital formation which is critical for the development of capital
market. Most capital markets of emerging economies according to Augusto and Sergio (2016), are not yet
sophisticated due to the fact that, such economies have difficult macroeconomic terrain which is often
characterized by policy inconsistency and political instability.
The global financial crisis, which resulted in a capital market collapse, has focused attention on Nigeria's
financial industry. This has resulted in an abundance of research and discussions about the capital market and