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Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014 [version 1;
peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
Robin J. Evans , Musa Mammadov
2
University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, Australia
Federation University, Ballarat, 3350, Australia
Abstract
This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West
Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of
epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based
on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average
infectious period that defines the dynamics of epidemics.
Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three
countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data
collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different
scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few
months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each
scenario.
This article is included in the Disease Outbreaks
gateway.
Musa Mammadov ( ) Corresponding author: m.mammadov@federation.edu.au
No competing interests were disclosed. Competing interests:
This work was funded by the Collaborative Research Network (CRN) of the Federation University of Australia and the Grant information:
University of Melbourne.
© 2014 Evans RJ and Mammadov M. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Copyright: Creative Commons Attribution
, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. License
Evans RJ and Mammadov M. How to cite this article: Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014 [version 1; peer review: 1
F1000Research 2014, :319 ( ) approved, 1 approved with reservations] 3 https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.5941.1
31 Dec 2014, :319 ( ) First published: 3 https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.5941.1
1 2
1
2
Reviewer Status
Invited Reviewers
version 2
(revision)
26 May 2015
version 1
31 Dec 2014
1 2
report
report
report
, Middle East Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber
Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
1
, Arizona State University, Tempe, Yang Kuang
USA
2
31 Dec 2014, :319 ( First published: 3
) https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.5941.1
26 May 2015, :319 ( Latest published: 3
) https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.5941.2
v1
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F1000Research 2014, 3:319 Last updated: 03 APR 2020