Vol.:(0123456789) Journal of Chinese Political Science https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-025-09907-8 RESEARCH ARTICLE AI as a Tool for Surveillance: China’s Concave Trilemma Dwayne Woods 1 Accepted: 30 January 2025 © Journal of Chinese Political Science/Association of Chinese Political Studies 2025 Abstract This study examines the implementation of mass digital surveillance systems in China, analyzing the relationship between technological sophistication and effective social control. The research explores how a government deployed artificial intelli- gence, facial recognition, and predictive analytics to monitor its population, invest- ing heavily in what appeared to be a comprehensive digital surveillance apparatus. The study identifies a counterintuitive pattern wherein increased digital surveil- lance capabilities corresponded with decreased effectiveness in maintaining effec- tive surveillance, like diseconomies of scale in markets. The research contributes to ongoing discussions about the efficacy of digital surveillance states and challenges assumptions about the relationship between technological capability and social control. These findings have significant implications for understanding authoritar- ian governance, privacy rights, and the limitations of artificial intelligence in social monitoring systems. Keywords AI · Surveillance · Concave · Data degradation · Simulation Introduction In his book The Sentinel State, Minxin Pei [26] uncovers a surprising truth about China’s authoritarian regime. Despite the advanced technological surveillance, the government relies primarily on human informants to monitor its citizens. Pei argues that the role of technology in surveillance is overstated, emphasizing the cru- cial importance of personal relationships and social networks for maintaining con- trol. This dependence on human intelligence, despite heavy AI investment, raises essential questions about the dynamics of repression and technology in authoritarian regimes. We argue that authoritarian regimes confront an interesting concave trilemma that arises from the paradoxical relationship between surveillance and technology. * Dwayne Woods dwoods2@purdue.edu 1 Purdue University, 610 Purdue Mall, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA