257 Copyright © 2025 ASIAN SCHOLARS NETWORK - All rights reserved Asian Journal of Research in Education and Social Sciences e-ISSN: 2682-8502 | Vol. 7, No. 2, 257-265, 2025 https://asianscholarsnetwork.com/asnet-journals SPECIAL ISSUE: International Conference on Future and Sustainable Education (ICFSE) 2024 Modelling of RON97 Fuel Prices in Malaysia Using Time Series Analysis Suhaila Bahrom 1,2* , Noratikah Abu 2 1 Department of Mathematics, Centre for Foundation Studies, International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM), Malaysia 2 Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah), Malaysia *Corresponding Author: suhaila_b@iium.edu.my Received: 15 July 2024 | Accepted: 1 December 2024 | Published: 1 March 2025 DOI: https://doi.org/10.55057/ajress.2025.7.2.25 __________________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract: Forecasting the prices of RON97 fuel is crucial for economic planning and policy- making due to its impact on transportation costs and inflation. This study aims to analyse the RON97 fuel prices and develop a forecasting model using Box-Jenkins modelling. The study employs a comprehensive historical weekly dataset of RON97 fuel prices in Malaysia from 30th March 2017 to 18th April 2024 obtained from Malaysia’s Official Open Data Portal. This research focuses on Stage I and Stage II of the Box-Jenkins approach. Stage I involves model identification, including a preliminary assessment of the data's stationarity through differencing and unit root tests. In Stage II, model estimation is applied to identify the most significant Box-Jenkins model to forecast the fuel price. This stage also includes identifying potential Box-Jenkins models based on autocorrelation functions (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF). In this study, the analysis is done with the aid of R software, where the potential of this software in forecasting weekly RON97 fuel prices time series data is explored. The result from the analysis revealed that ARIMA (0,1,2) is the best model for forecasting RON97 fuel prices in Malaysia. Box-Jenkins modelling effectively captures the underlying patterns and trends in RON97 fuel prices, highlighting its applicability in economic and financial time series forecasting. Keywords: ARIMA, RON97, Box-Jenkins, Time Series Analysis ___________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction Research Octane Number 95 (RON95) and Research Octane Number 97 (RON97) are the two types of petrol in Malaysia. RON95 is a widely used type of petrol in Malaysia, known for its affordability and popularity among private car owners. On the other hand, RON97 is considered a premium-grade fuel, offering higher octane and potentially better performance for certain vehicles (Mohamad & How, 2014). The increase in fuel prices in Malaysia is causing concern as it indicates higher grocery and living costs, with minorities feeling the most burdened (Rohani & Pahazri, 2018)Fluctuations in fuel prices significantly impact various sectors, including transportation, manufacturing, healthcare, entertainment, agriculture, construction, business, and the overall economy (Akhmad et al., 2019). Expenditure for private car owners will increase as fuel prices increase. The fluctuation in fuel prices in Malaysia is influenced by global crude oil prices and foreign exchange volatility, resulting in unpredictable price changes (Majuca, 2020) Crude oil prices are influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply-demand imbalances, natural disasters, and economic fluctuations