1 2003-01-3055 IMPLEMENTATION OF A PHYSICS-BASED DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF THE MULTI- DISCIPLINARY AIRCRAFT UNCERTAINTY Simon I. Briceno Graduate Research Assistant, Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL), Georgia Tech Dimitri N. Mavris Boeing Professor for Advanced Aerospace Systems Analysis, School of Aerospace Engineering, Director, ASDL Copyright © 2003 SAE International ABSTRACT In today’s business climate, aerospace companies are more than ever in need of rational methods and techniques that provide insights as to the best strategies which may be pursued for increased profitability and risk mitigation. However, the use of subjective, anecdotal decision-making remains prevalent due to the absence of analytical methods capable of capturing and forecasting future needs. Negotiations between airframe and engine manufacturers could benefit greatly from a structured environment that facilitates efficient, rational, decision-making. Creation of such an environment can be developed through a parametric physics-based, stochastic formulation that uses Response Surface Equations as meta-models to expedite the process. This paper describes the implementation of such an approach in order to demonstrate the types of insights that might be gained as an engine manufacturer tries to forecast the effects of the associated airframe uncertainties (structural, aerodynamic, etc. design changes) on engine related characteristics for the design of a hypothetical regional business jet. INTRODUCTION In the present business climate of Wall Street quarterly profit expectations, product launch decisions in the aerospace industry can no longer be based on engineering considerations alone. Current management processes could greatly benefit by the presence of a parametric tool that adequately describes and assesses new projects and opportunities based on both engineering and management considerations in an integrated environment. In addition, a company cannot afford to base its decisions on information that does not account for the inherent uncertainty associated with engineering assumptions and customer requirements evolution. The inclusion of financial and competitive factors also is critical to decision-making. A new paradigm shift is therefore needed in the industry to facilitate these types of trade-offs. Although, this discussion may be pertinent to a variety of business settings, the authors have selected to study and understand the complex, at times non-cooperative, customer- supplier relationship. More specifically, an airframe and an engine manufacturer were chosen as the representative customer and supplier, respectively, in order to formulate and rationalize the elements needed for the development of one such environment. For this hypothetical scenario the engine manufacturer is assumed to be eager to capitalize on the opportunity of becoming the first supplier to successfully design, build and certify a competitive engine. This is particularly important in this context as airlines commonly expect their aircraft to be certified with products from all competing engine companies. Since this first certification could ultimately lead to early entry into the market prior to their competitor and potential profits, engine manufacturers are often willing to make concessions to ensure this competitive edge. Therefore, it is the authors´ belief that engine manufacturers would especially benefit from the existence of a capability that allows management to provide some rationale and certainty in their decision-making process. The creation of such a framework involves defining key issues at the outset of the process. Initial steps use engineering analysis to provide a sense of cost and product uncertainty for management to consider.