Proceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference A.E.OPÇİN, A.H.Buss, T.W.LUCAS, P.J.SANCHEZ, W. K. Victor Chan, and Gregory Zacharewicz, eds. MODELING ANTI-AIR WARFARE WITH DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION AND ANALYZING NAVAL CONVOY OPERATIONS Ali E. Opçin Arnold. H. Buss Department of Computer Science MOVES Institute Department of Computer Science MOVES Institute Naval Postgraduate School 1 University Circle Naval Postgraduate School 1 University Circle Monterey, CA 93943, USA Monterey, CA 93943, USA Thomas W. Lucas Paul J. Sanchez Department of Operations Research Department of Operations Research Naval Postgraduate School 1 University Circle Naval Postgraduate School 1 University Circle Monterey, CA 93943, USA Monterey, CA 93943, USA ABSTRACT Using Anti-air warfare (AAW) tactics and concepts of operations, this research explores the effective factors of convoy operations. A discrete event simulation (DES) was built by modeling ships, and their sensors and weapons. The model was used to simulate over 1.5 million naval battles varying 99 input variables using systematically created data combinations. To select the input settings over a specific range of input variables, a nearly orthogonal nearly balanced (NOB) Latin hypercube design was used. The effects of these input changes on the outputs were analyzed. The response variable was the survival of the High Value Unit (HVU) as a binary outcome. According to the analysis, in a convoy operation under air threat, the surface-to-air missile (SAM) specifications of the screen ships, the staying power of the HVU, and the anti-ship missile (ASM) specifications of the enemy ships had the most significant effect on the survival of the HVU. 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Convoy operations under various threats are among the most critical naval missions. Especially within a carrier group, air defense in naval tactics is often provided with layered defense tactics. At the center of these concentric layers, an aircraft carrier or other HVU is protected. If an enemy force—which may be either an aircraft or a missile—gets into the air defense umbrella from this layer, then the next layers of defense are provided by aircraft based on the aircraft carrier that escorts the naval task force. Surface-to- air missiles (SAMs) are launched from surface platforms, such as the Standard Missile-1 (SM-1), with a range of up to 100 nm, and gun systems like 76 mm Oto Melara gun, with a range of up to 30 nm, provide point defense. As a last layer, a frigate or destroyer will usually be mounted with guns, including a Close-