A Taylor Rule for EU members. Does one rule fit to all EU
member needs?
Stephanos Papadamou
a, *
, Moise Sidiropoulos
b, c
, Aristea Vidra
d
a
University of Thessaly, Department of Economics, Greece
b
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
c
University of Strasbourg, France
d
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Economics, Greece
ARTICLE INFO
JEL codes:
E52
E58
E44
Keywords:
ECB monetary policy
Taylor Rule
Financial crisis
Asymmetries
ABSTRACT
The recent global financial crisis has unsettled the broad acquiescence that has predominated
concerning the goals of a Central Bank for years. The viewpoint that the monetary policy makers
have to ignore financial stability has started to decay. This paper examines to what extent the
ECB's monetary policy decisions are determined by the signals of the financial sphere. This goal is
achieved by using the Taylor Rule augmented by variables that can attribute the financial element
in order for the behavior of the ECB to be described. This way gives us the opportunity to compare
the rates proposed by the Taylor Rule by those that were finally observed not only for the
Eurozone in total, but also for some of its member countries individually. The estimations that
come from the GMM for the periods before and during the financial crisis provide us with in-
dications concerning the effects of the financial sector over the conduct of the ECB's Monetary
Policy as well as the defective operation of the Eurozone. It seems that a common rule does not fit
to all members given several observed asymmetries across some members.
1. Introduction
From the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2007, concerns about the financial stability/instability have grown up.
Considering the role of monetary policy, it has not been determined whether Central Banks (CB) should be responsible not only for the
conventional targets but also for the financial stability. The question has been thoroughly discussed and analyzed by the global economic
research community, without any explicit conclusion.
A widespread view asserts that while seeking the objective of price stability, the CB in fact promotes better financial stability
(Schwartz, 1995). The opposing view contends that the financial system is inherently fragile and the CB has occasionally endangered the
objective of price stability when financial stability is threatened (Kent & Debelle, 1998). Practically, these studies gave birth in two
search directions developed throughout the next section.
This paper has a dual purpose. Initially, it is investigated if and to what extent the decisions of the ECB monetary policy guided by
economic instability signals. For this reason, a backward-looking monetary policy rule is preferred while forward-looking models have
been used recently. Recently, Chortareas, Magonis, and Panagiotidis (2012) provides evidence for the asymmetry of the New Keynesian
Phillips Curve in the euro-area using both forward and backward looking inflation variable. However, as Albulescu, Goyeau, and Pepin
* Corresponding author. Department of Economics University of Thessaly, 78, October 28th street, Volos, 38333, Greece.
E-mail addresses: stpapada@uth.gr (S. Papadamou), msidiro@econ.auth.gr (M. Sidiropoulos), aristea_vi@hotmail.com (A. Vidra).
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
The Journal of Economic Asymmetries
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jeca
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2018.e00104
Received 30 May 2018; Received in revised form 22 August 2018; Accepted 22 August 2018
1703-4949/© 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.
The Journal of Economic Asymmetries 18 (2018) e00104