1 An Evaluation of a Methodology for Seasonal Soil Water Forecasting for Australian Dry Land Cropping systems Andrew W Western 1 , Kithsiri B Dassanayake 1 , Kushan C. Perera 1 , Robert M Argent 2 , Oscar Alves 2 , Griffith Young 2 , Dongryeol Ryu 1 1 Department of Infrastructure Engineering, the University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia 2 Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Docklands VIC 3208, Australia Corresponding author: Andrew W Western, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, the University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia. T: +61 3 8344 7305, M: 0408 577 855, E: a.western@unimelb.edu.au Highlights:  We produce ensemble outlooks of plant available soil water (PASW)  PASW outlooks have some skill in predicting above/below median conditions for 3-6 months  PASW ensembles are more skilful than climatology for 1-3 lead months  PASW outlook skill mostly derives from initial soil water conditions