Volume: 13, Issue: 2 February 2025| Impact Factor (SJIF 2025):8.737 | Journal DOI: 10.36713/epra2712 ISSN: 2277 – 5692 International Journal of Southern Economic Light (JSEL) - Peer Review Journal 2025 EPRA JSEL | https://eprajournals.com/ | Journal DOI URL: https://doi.org/10.36713/epra2712 5 MODELLING CONFLICT-INDUCED DISPLACEMENT OF PERSONS IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO Kagarura Willy Rwamparagi 1 , Nahabwe Patrick Kagambo John 2 1 Kabale University 2 Kabale University ABSTRACT-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This study analyzes conflict-induced displacement trends in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 2009 to 2022 using a quantitative approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. Time- series data from the World Bank is utilized, with the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to conflict and violence as the dependent variable, while autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components serve as independent variables. Parameter estimation using conditional least squares (CLS) reveals that the MA(2) coefficient (0.999708) is positive and statistically significant, indicating that nearly 100% of current displacements are driven by external shocks or errors, which tend to reoccur approximately every two years. The estimated ARIMA (1, 2, 2) model is found to be covariance stationary and invertible, confirming its robustness for forecasting displacement trends. Based on these findings, we recommend addressing the root causes of conflict, strengthening early warning systems, enhancing humanitarian response mechanisms, investing in resettlement programs, and fostering regional and international cooperation to promote sustainable peace and stability in the DRC. KEY WORDS: ARIMA Modelling, Internally Displaced Persons -------------------------------------------------------- INTRODUCTION Armed conflicts and wars have long been a major driver of displacement across the world, forcing millions of people to flee their homes in search of safety. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has experienced recurring armed conflicts for decades, leading to widespread displacement, loss of lives, and destruction of property (UNHCR, 2022). The persistent instability in the region has made the DRC one of the most affected countries in terms of internally displaced persons (IDPs), with over 5.8 million people forced to flee due to violence, making it one of the largest displacement crises globally (World Bank, 2023). Despite international interventions and peacekeeping efforts, conflict-induced displacement remains a severe humanitarian and developmental challenge in the country. The research problem lies in the ongoing cycles of war and armed conflicts, which continuously displace millions and devastate livelihoods. Rebel insurgencies, ethnic clashes, and struggles over natural resources have fueled instability, leading to both internal and cross-border displacement (IDMC 2022). Displaced populations face significant humanitarian crises, including food insecurity, inadequate shelter, and limited access to essential services. Understanding displacement trends and the underlying factors influencing forced migration is crucial for policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and development agencies to implement effective interventions. This study employs autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling to analyze trends in conflict- induced displacement in the DRC from 2009 to 2022. ARIMA is a robust time-series forecasting method that captures historical patterns and projects future displacement trends, offering insights into the persistence and severity of forced migration (Box & Jenkins, 1976). Unlike qualitative studies that focus on conflict narratives, this research provides a data-driven approach to understanding displacement dynamics, enhancing evidence-based decision-making.