Citation: Kunttu, J.; Wallius, V.; Kulvik, M.; Leskinen, P.; Lintunen, J.; Orfanidou, T.; Tuomasjukka, D. Exploring 2040: Global Trends and International Policies Setting Frames for the Finnish Wood-Based Economy. Sustainability 2022, 14, 9999. https:// doi.org/10.3390/su14169999 Academic Editor: Piergiuseppe Morone Received: 11 July 2022 Accepted: 8 August 2022 Published: 12 August 2022 Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affil- iations. Copyright: © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). sustainability Article Exploring 2040: Global Trends and International Policies Setting Frames for the Finnish Wood-Based Economy Janni Kunttu 1, *, Venla Wallius 1,2 , Martti Kulvik 3 , Pekka Leskinen 1 , Jussi Lintunen 3 , Timokleia Orfanidou 1,4 and Diana Tuomasjukka 1 1 European Forest Institute, Yliopistokatu 6 B, 80100 Joensuu, Finland 2 School of Business and Economics, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, 40014 Jyvaskyla, Finland 3 ETLA Economic Research, Arkadiankatu 23 B, 00100 Helsinki, Finland 4 Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems, School of Chemical Engineering, Aalto University, Vuorimiehentie 1, 02150 Espoo, Finland * Correspondence: janni.kunttu@efi.int Abstract: Global trends influence the approaches and mindset for using natural resources and tech- nological capacities. Participatory scenario methods have proven useful in long-term foresight. However, country-level foresight studies often ignore the broader trends affecting international mar- kets and setting frames for economic development. This study envisions which global trends could occur and how the resulting European policies might affect the Finnish forest sector’s development in 2040. We applied a Futures Wheel approach, where stakeholder groups consisting of policy-, economic- and social sustainability-, technology-, and climate sustainability -experts in the field of forestry and interlinking industries created three future scenarios in a workshop: (1) biodiversity and regulated economy, (2) circular economy, and (3) era of social connection. The scenarios assumed growing resource scarcity as a result of climate change, as well as over-consumption and increasing inequality problems globally. Thus, European-level policies focused on the circular economy and resource-use restrictions. Finnish industries should invest in wood-based side stream and waste utilization to increase added value and decrease virgin wood uses to succeed in these scenarios. However, this would require investments in non-wood energy sources to release these secondary wood flows from energy uses. Keywords: futures wheel; Finnish forest sector; global trends; international markets; international policies 1. Introduction The European Commission identifies multiple megatrends that affect global future long-term development, including aggravating resource scarcity, climate change, envi- ronmental degradation, technological change, the expanding influence of the East and South, and increasing consumption [1]. Climate change is recognized as one of the biggest threats globally, with irreversible and large-scale impacts on the biophysical conditions of the planet and acting as an escalator for other threatening trends, e.g., biodiversity loss, social inequality and conflicts, and increased natural disasters. Simultaneously, global resource use has more than tripled between 1970 and 2017 [2] due to population growth and rising revenues. The annual resource consumption exceeded 100 billion tons per year globally in 2020 [3], despite the COVID-19 pandemic. The OECD (2019) estimates resource consumption at 167 billion tons in 2060 if new restrictions are not adopted. In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that fast, wide-ranging, and unprece- dented changes in society are required if we are to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and prevent these hazardous side effects [4]. In 2022, the IPCC raised the urgency of action again [5]. Sustainability 2022, 14, 9999. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14169999 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability