Research Article
AssessingVariabilityandTrendsofRainfallandTemperaturefor
theDistrictofMusanzeinRwanda
Anthony Twahirwa ,
1,2
Christopher Oludhe ,
2
PhilipOmondi ,
2,3
Gaspard Rwanyiziri,
4
andJosephSebazigaNdakize
1,4
1
Rwanda Meteorology Agency, P.O. Box 898, Kigali, Rwanda
2
University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197, Nairobi 00100, Kenya
3
IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre, P.O. Box 10304, Nairobi 00100, Kenya
4
University of Rwanda, P.O. Box 3900, Kigali, Rwanda
CorrespondenceshouldbeaddressedtoAnthonyTwahirwa;twah2050@gmail.com
Received 6 March 2023; Revised 6 June 2023; Accepted 20 July 2023; Published 25 August 2023
AcademicEditor:HiroyukiHashiguchi
Copyright©2023AnthonyTwahirwaetal. TisisanopenaccessarticledistributedundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution
License,whichpermitsunrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalworkisproperly
cited.
Variabilityinrainfallandtemperatureresultsindiferentimpactsonagriculturalpractices.Assessesmentofvariabilityandtrend
ofrainfallandtemperatureforthedistrictofMusanzeinRwandawasconductedusingsixmeteorologicalstationsforaperiodof
37years,rangingfrom1981to2018,anddatawereobtainedfromRwandaMeteorologyAgency.Musanzedistrictislocatedin
highlandareasofRwanda,understandingthevariabilityandtrendinrainfallandtemperatureisparamounttoincreasetheuptake
ofclimateinformationandsupportstrategicorientation.TeMann–Kendallnonparametrictestandmodifed Mann–Kendall
wereusedtoassessthetrendinrainfallandtemperature,whereasSen’sslopeestimatorwasusedtoassessthemagnitudeof
change.Teresultsfrombothmethodsshowedmuchsimilarityandconsistency.Teassessmentofvariabilityandtrendinrainfall
andtemperatureinMusanzadistrictindicatedthatincreasingtemperatureanddecreasingrainfalltrendsgaveanindicationof
changesinvariabilityandtrendinrainfallandtemperature.Teannualpatternrevealedasubstantialdownwardtendencyof
−25.7%forNyange,theonlystationwithconstantdecreasingtrendoverallseasons,DJF, −61.4%,SON, −12.2%,JJA, −40.3%,and
MAM, −4.35.Temperatureanalysisforbothmaximumandminimumindicatedincreasingtrendwhichwassignalforconstant
warmingupinthearea.TeresultsfromcoefcientofvariationindicatedahighdisparityinrainfallvariationfromJunetoAugust
whichrangedbetween51and74%,andotherseasonschangesweremoderate.
1.Introduction
Tevariationintrendofrainfallandtemperatureoverthe
EastAfricanregionnearLakeVictoriabasin,whereRwanda
islocated,showedasignifcantdecreasingtrend,asasignof
decreasingrainfallovermanypartsoftheregion[1];whereby
thedrylandareasofEasternAfricaaregettingmoreafected
bychangesinrainfallandtemperature[2].Temajorityof
East African Countries (EACs) consider agriculture to be
one of the key sectors contributing 40% of the Gross Do-
mestic Product (GDP) of the countries where more than
80%ofthepopulationdependsonagriculture,thevariation
inrainfallandtemperaturehasasignifcantimpactonthe
socioeconomic development of East African Countries
(EACs). Te Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) os-
cillation,whichmovesfromthenorthernhemispheretothe
southernhemisphereandviceversa,isacontributingfactor
intheweatherandclimatevariationpatternovertheEAC
region[3–6].Inlightoftheresearchdoneondatafrom1963
to2012,whichshowedvariabilityinannualdecadalacross
EasternAfricaandtheGreaterHorn[7],thetrend,regional
distribution,andtemporaldistributionofbothrainfalland
temperature have been shifting recently. Te disparity be-
tween rainfall variability and temperature trend has been
referredtoasthe“EastAfricanclimateparadox,”whichcalls
for collaborative research, and improved modeling
Hindawi
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2023, Article ID 7177776, 14 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/7177776