HKIE Transactions, 2014 Vol. 21, No. 2, 81–88, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1023697X.2014.909001 Electricity consumption in Hong Kong: trend analysis and greenhouse gases emission T.M. Lai a∗ , W.M. To a , K.H. Lam b , W.C. Lo c and W.L. Chung d a Macao Polytechnic Institute, Macau, People’s Republic of China; b Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China; c Department of Electrical Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China; d EDMS (Hong Kong) Limited, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China (Received 17 June 2013; accepted 30 November 2013 ) The consumption of electricity has increased continuously in the past four decades. Inevitably, the emission of greenhouse gases has increased in the same period even though Hong Kong’s power companies have produced a certain percentage of electricity using “cleaner” fuels such as natural gas and nuclear power in recent years. This paper presents a four-parameter logistic model (To WM, Lai TM, Lo WC, Lam KH, Chung WL. The growth pattern and fuel life cycle analysis of the electricity consumption of Hong Kong. Environ Pollut. 2012;165:1–10) that describes the growth pattern of Hong Kong’s overall electricity consumption. The same approach was used to model the sectoral electricity consumption in Hong Kong. In addition, a fuel life cycle analysis was used to determine greenhouse gases emission due to electricity consumption. It was found that the emission factor due to the electricity generated in Hong Kong was 0.824 kg CO 2 -equivalent per kWh while the emission factor due to the electricity consumed in Hong Kong was 0.751 kg CO 2 -equivalent per kWh, as 23% of the electricity consumed was imported (net import) from the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant located in Shenzhen in 2012. Future electricity demand is presented. Keywords: electricity consumption; greenhouse gases emission; trend analysis Introduction Hong Kong’s population and gross domestic product (GDP) have increased continuously in the past four decades. Inevitably, the consumption of energy and mate- rial resources has increased in the same period while the generation and discharge of pollutants such as air and water pollutants, solid waste, and noise emissions have increased accordingly.[1–8] In particular, electricity con- sumption increased from 4451 million kWh in 1970 to 43,031 million kWh in 2012.[9] As Hong Kong trans- formed from a light-industrial centre in Asia in the 1970s to a world finance and tourism centre, the ratio of household, commercial, industrial, and public electricity consump- tion changed from 21:30:41:8 in 1970 to 26:59:7:7 in 2012. In 2012, Hong Kong’s population was 7.174 mil- lion, representing a 79% increase from 4 million in 1970. Hong Kong’s total GDP was Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) 1965.1 billion in 2012, representing a 10.6-fold increase from HKD 185.3 billion in 1970 (both figures chained to 2011). During this period, nearly all the increase in GDP came from the expansion of the service sector in Hong Kong. Now, Hong Kong is an international finance centre, a tourism centre, and a trade and logistics centre in Asia. To explain such a phenomenal growth in electricity consumption, To et al. [1] adopted a four-parameter logis- tic model that closely described the growth pattern of Hong ∗ Corresponding author. Email: tmlai@ipm.edu.mo Kong’s overall electricity consumption from 1970 to 2010. In addition, To et al. [1] applied life cycle analysis (LCA) to determine greenhouse gases, sulphur dioxide, and nitro- gen oxide emissions due to electricity consumption in Hong Kong. In this paper, the four-parameter logistic model proposed by To et al. [1] was validated using the latest statistics on electricity consumption obtained from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department.[9] The same approach was used to model the sectoral electric- ity consumption in Hong Kong because the commercial and residential sectors consume a significant amount of electricity.[9–11] Fuel LCA was used to determine green- house gases emission in terms of CO 2 -equivalent due to electricity consumption in 2012. Growth pattern of electricity consumption To et al. [1] adopted a four-parameter logistic model to characterise the growth pattern of Hong Kong’s over- all electricity consumption. In fact, the logistic model has been widely employed by scientists to explain var- ious biological processes, including population growth and epidemiology.[12,13] In business and social science, the logistic model has been used to describe economic growth,[14] innovation and technology diffusion,[15] and adoption of new products.[16] A logistic curve is © 2014 The Hong Kong Instituition of Engineers