Exchanges No. 19 Decadal Variability and Predictability Part 1: Global aspects and the Atlantic sector International CLIVAR Project Office, Southampton Oceanography Centre, Empress Dock, Southhampton SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom Tel: +44–23 80 596777, Fax: +44–23 80 596204, icpo@soc.soton.ac.uk, http://www.clivar.org/ Volume 6 No. 1 March 2001 Newsletter of the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR) Exchanges Figure 1 from paper: PREDICATE: Mechanisms and Predictability of Decadal Fluctuations in At- lantic-European Climate by Rowan Sutton: Observations of Northern European temperature anomalies (white line) and three forecasts demonstrating the large uncertainty in climate scenarios for the next 20 years. Note that the forecasts are not continuous with the observations because no information about the current ocean (and atmosphere) state is currently employed. This is a key issue that PREDICATE is addressing. The paper appears on page 11. As a result of the series of scientific workshops this and the next issue of Exchanges highlight recent scientific work on the field of decdal variability and predictability, one of the main streams of CLIVAR. Uncertainty in current climate forecasts on decadal timescales Northern European temperatures under three scenarios 4 2 0 -2 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2010 2020 2000 brought to you by CORE View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk provided by OceanRep