DOCUNENT MUNN ED 348 350 SP 033 969 AUTHOR Mulholland, Lori A.; Berliner, David C. TITLE Teacher Experience and the Estimation of Student Achievement. PUB DATE Apr 92 NOTE 24p.; Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (San Francisco, CA, April 20-24, 1992). PUB TYPE Speeches/Conference Papers (150) -- Reports - Research/Technical (143) EDRS PRICE MFOI/PC01 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS *Academic Achievement; *Beginning Teachers; Comparative Analysis; Demography; Elementary Education; Evaluative Thinking; Mathematics Tests; *Predictive Validity; *Predictor Variables; Reading Tests; Scores; Teacher Expectations of Students; *Teaching Experience IDENTIFIERS *Accuracy Measures; *Correlation Ratio; Iowa Tests of Basic Skills ABSTRACT Forty-two pairs of experienced and novice teachers predicted the rank order of their pupils' scores on the reading and mathematics portions of the Iowa Test of Basic Skills (ITMS). The pool of novice teachers were first semester students in the Arizona State University Professional Teacher Preparation Program (PTPP). The experiences teachers in this study were the placement teachers with whom the first semester PTPP students were placed. The correlation between perceived score and actual score on the ITBS was used as a measure of the accuracy teachers' judgment of student achievement. The purpose of this study was to determine relationships between the accuracy of teachers' judgments of student achievement and the following variables: (1) years of teaching experience; (2) etnn... composition of classroom; (3) pupil gender; (4) class size; am (5) pupil ability as defined by scores on the ITBS. Correlations betwen the experienced and novice teachers' judgments were also obtained when both worked in the same classrooms. The experienced teachers were highly accurate in their prectictions and significantly more accurate than novices; correlations varied widely within both groups of teacheis. The relation between accuracy of predictions and years of teaching experience was negative but not substantial; there were no relationships between accuracy of predictions and classroom ethnicity, gender, and class size. Experienced teachixs were more accurate in judging the performance of high scoring students than that of low scoring students, but not significantly so. Implications of these results and recommendatiors for further research are discussed. (Author/LL) *********************************************************************** * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. ***********************************************************************