IJSR - INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH 243 Volume : 2 | Issue : 12 | December 2013 • ISSN No 2277 - 8179 Research Paper Geography Wani Rashid Ashraf Teaching Fellow (FIP), Amar Singh College, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir-190008 ABSTRACT The impacts of climate variability and change are global concerns. This study analyses the frequency of local and teleconnective association between precipitations over Kashmir valley and NAO using the monthly data for the period 1975–2009. Regression and correlation methods are used to analyze the spatial variation in precipitation. The overall association of the stations is analyzed by fitting a linear least square trend line to the annual deviation from the mean. All the stations except Qazigund have shown a decreasing trend. Correlation analyses have been discovered using Karl Pearson’s method. A significant positive correlation is found at stations of Srinagar, Kupwara and Qazigund. The correlation of the stations during spring and sum- mer seasons is also showing high degree of positive correlation. Most of the stations are strongly correlated with each other. Also the investigation of the association of NAO and precipitation shows a positive correlation in winter for most of the stations. However least positive correlation was found in summer. Spatio-Temporal Variation of Precipitation in Kashmir Valley, Global Teleconnections KEYWORDS : Climate variability, pre- cipitation, regression, correlation, NAO Introduction Global surface temperature has significantly risen during the last century and will continue to rise unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced (Houghton et al. 2001). The international panel on climate change (IPCC) predicts that the average global surface temperature will increase by between 2 and 4.5ºC and that there will be major changes in seasonal precipitation patterns by 2100 (IPCC, 2007). Global surface temperature has significantly risen during the last century and will continue to rise unless greenhouse gas emissions are dras- tically reduced (Houghton et al. 2001). Changes in the distribu- tion of precipitation would also be likely to occur with serious consequences in some parts of the world (Mitchell, 1983). Ever increasing attention is devoted by climatologists to the study of precipitation trends, because, owing to possible variations or changes in the climate, the geographic distribution of rainfall frequency and intensity could be subjected to substantial modi- fications (IPCC, 1996). According to the Third Assessment Re- port of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), the global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.6 ± 0.2° C over the 20th century, and rainfall has de- creased over much of the Northern Hemisphere sub-tropical regions by about 0.3% per decade during the 20th century. In some regions, such as parts of Asia and Africa, the frequency and intensity of droughts have been observed to increase in re- cent decades. Though each and every part of the world is more or less susceptible to natural calamities, the Himalaya due to its complex geological structures, dynamic geomorphology, and seasonality in hydrometeorological conditions experience natural disasters very frequently, especially water induced haz- ards (Rawat et. al., 2011). Negative impacts of climate change on society and ecosystems are mostly expected to arise from extreme events, which highlight the need to identify climate extremes (Sillmann and Roeckner, 2008). Palmer and Raisanen (2002) analyzed 19 GCM simulations, and estimated that the probability of winter rainfall exceeding two standard devia- tions above normal will increase by factors of five and three re- spectively over northern and southern parts of the UK by 2100. The daily precipitation time series indicate significant posi- tive trends for the United States ( Karl and Knight, 1998). On a global scale, an increase in the rainfall should occur at middle and high latitudes, and a reduction at lower ones (Hulme et al., 1998; Doherty et al., 1999). Groisman et al. (1999) studied the relationship between the increase in total precipitation, and the frequency of heavy rain events by applying a simple statistical model based on the gamma distribution to summer data of eight countries: Canada, the United States, Mexico, the former Soviet Union, China, Australia, Poland and Norway. The results showed that the shape parameter of the precipitation distributions re- mained rather stable, independent of total precipitation, while the scale parameter was most variable. If these results can be generalized and used as a model for the future, as total precipi- tation increases, a disproportionate increase in heavy precipita- tion has to be expected (Groisman et al., 1999). Data and methodology Kashmir valley is a region of northern Jammu and Kashmir with an area of 4865 km². Because of its geographic position and mountainous environment, its climate is characterized by cold winters and mild summers. The monthly and annual rainfall data from 1975 to June 2009 set used in this work were selected from Indian Metrological Department, Pune. Due to lack of data, only six main stations representing the valley were taken into account for the study which are given in table. The Pearson cor- relation was used to investigate the association between total rainfall of various stations. Also, correlation between various stations and NAO data was also established. The NAO index for the period 1975 to 2009 was downloaded from www.cru.uea. ac.uk. The cumulative departure from the mean (CDM) was also calculated to detect the trends over shorter period of time using the following formula: Study area The study area is located in the northwest corner of India in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Its geographical position is be- tween 30°17’ N and 37°5’ N (latitude) and 73° 26’ E and 80°30’ E (longitude). Kashmir is situated within the Himalayan moun- tain system. The valley of Kashmir was formed by folding and faulting as the Himalayan mountain chain was thrust between the Indian sub continent and the rest of Asia. The valley runs northwest to southeast along the strike of the mountain chain and is drained by the river Jhelum which cuts through the Pir Panjal at the Baramullah gap. This structural basin is 135 kilo- meters in length with a maximum width of 40 kilometers and ranges in altitude from 5200 -6000 ft above the sea level. Its floor stands 1600 meters above sea level in the Jhelum flood plain. It covers an area of about 4865 km2. The valley is acces- sible from the Punjab plain through two famous passes; the Pir Panjal pass (3494m) and Banihal pass (2832m). The Jhelum is the main artery of the valley. The seasonal and total precipita- tion of Kashmir valley is given in table 1. Table 1: Seasonal and total precipitation of Kashmir Valley Station Total Jan.- March April-June July- September October- December October- March %age of total April- September %age of total Pahalgam 1124.7 439.2 361.8 186.6 137.1 51.24 48.76 Kokernag 1100.9 459 329.8 187.3 124.8 53.03 46.97 Kupwara 913.5 415.4 300.4 119.1 78.6 54.08 45.92 Gulmarg 933.1 350.4 355.7 137.8 89.2 47.11 52.89 Srinagar 649.7 190.7 158.5 120.9 179.6 56.99 43.01 Qazigund 990.5 427.9 279.5 196.5 86.6 51.94 48.06