International Journal of Environmental & Agriculture Research (IJOEAR) ISSN:[2454-1850] [Vol-10, Issue-6, June- 2024] Page | 58 Assessing the Impact of Climate Variability on Maize Production in Rwanda: A case of Gakenke District Aline Ujeneza 1* ; James Kant Kamuhanda 2 ; Charles Lwanga Twagiramungu 3 *1,2 University of Lay Adventists of Kigali, P.O Box 6392 Kigali, Rwanda 3 Haramaya University, P.O Box 138 Dire Dawa, Ethiopia *Corresponding Author Abstract— The changes in climatic variables is a challenge for the humanity as they affect different ecosystems important for life. This study assessed the impact of climate variability on maize production from 2012 to 2021. Specifically, this study 1) assessed the pattern of precipitation and temperature variability, 2) analysed the production of maize, and 3) investigated the relation between climate variability and maize production in Gakenke district. This study was conducted in three sectors, with a sample of 322 maize farmers. Climatic data were obtained from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency. Both descriptive statistic and regression and correlation analysis were performed in RStudio. The results show a remarkable variability in the annual mean temperature and annual rainfall. The mean temperature and amount of rain have increased by +1.34 o C and 1.74 mm in Cyabingo, by +1.47 o C and 1.997 mm in Gakenke, and by +1.52 o C and 3.389 mm in Gashenyi. An overall increase in maize yields was highlighted and much dependent on temperature variation than precipitation variability. A strong correlation was between the temperature and yields, with r values of 0.98 for Cyabingo, 0.90 for Gakenke, and 0.94 for Gashenyi. The regression analysis indicates that maize yields were significantly influenced by temperature variability, with R-squared values of 0.960 (p-value = 0.000), 0.815 (p-value = 0.000), and 0.885 (p-value = 0.000) respectively in Cyabingo, Gakenke, and Gashenyi. On the other side, a mild positive correlation (r = 0. 43), a moderate negative correlation (r = -0.59), and a weak negative correlation (r = -0.1) were between precipitation and maize yields in Cyabingo, Gakenke, and Gashenyi, respectively. The regression analysis also indicates that maize yield of was not significantly influenced by precipitation variability. Although this study shows the temperature as an important factor for maize production, its continuing rise could bring to heavy rains and unexpected strong weather events, with ultimate negative impacts. Thus, adaptation strategies on climatic variability should be enhanced in order to minimize its disastrous effects on maize production. Keywords- Climate variability, Climate change, Maize production, Gakenke district, Rwanda. I. INTRODUCTION The global development has encountered a significant challenge in the form of climate. This is primarily resulting from the effect of worldwide climate change, variation in rainfall patterns, and the rising average temperatures, which have introduced new hurdles and risks to all human and world wide. Changes in the climate are the result of both natural and human-induced factors occurring across continents and oceans [1]. These changes extend beyond typical atmospheric conditions and can be attributed to natural influences like the Earth's orbital variations, volcanic activities, and crustal movements, as well as human activities such as the accumulation of greenhouse gases and aerosols, deforestation, intensive farming, waste disposal, transportation, industrial operations, and overconsumption [2]. Global warming, indicated by the overall increase in the planet's temperature, has emerged as a predominant trend that will usher in significant global transformations in the future. Recent studies highlight important information on the expected problems of food insecurity as consequence of climate change [3], [4], with particular effect on local communities that depend on rain-fed agriculture [5]. Agriculture makes up roughly 39% of Rwanda's total gross domestic product (GDP) and provides livelihoods for about 88% of the whole population, particularly in rural parts of the country, where the majority of Rwandans reside [6]. More than 65% of Rwandan population depend on agriculture, forestry and tourism resources for income generation and food security [7]. Among the four key sectors, agriculture stands out as a major factor accelerating the economic development and significantly improving the livelihoods in Rwanda. However, the sector is much prone to the weather and climate-related hazards, including Received:- 06 June 2024/ Revised:- 16 June 2024/ Accepted:- 24 June 2024/ Published: 30-06-2024 Copyright @ 2024 International Journal of Environmental and Agriculture Research This is an Open-Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0) which permits unrestricted Non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.