Available online at www.CivileJournal.org
Civil Engineering Journal
Vol. 5, No. 11, November, 2019
2309
River Flood Hazard Modeling: Forecasting Flood Hazard for
Disaster Risk Reduction Planning
Murphy P. Mohammed
a*
a
Tarlac State University, Tarlac City, 2300 Philippines.
Received 24 June 2019; Accepted 27 September 2019
Abstract
The objective of the study is to create a flood hazard model of Tarlac River and to calibrate the model based on data
gathered from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. The study employed
analytical method wherein the 1D flood modeling was utilized. GIS, DEM data, rainfall data, river analysis system, HEC-
GeoRAS, hydrologic modeling system, and HEC-GeoHMS were utilized. The different flood models revealed that Tarlac
River is not expected to be overtopped by flood water as regards the different extreme rainfall events considered in the
present study. The RAS model simulation was based on the concept that there is no base flow observed within the river
reach before the occurrence of any extreme rainfall event. Henceforth, there is still no 100 percent assurance that the river
reach will not be overtopped with the occurrence of initial base flow in combination with the occurrence of higher extreme
rainfall events. Further studies or investigations should be delved into such combination of events. Possible levee breach
of the Tarlac River as well as the possible incorporation of flood mitigating interventions in future modeling scenarios can
be likewise considered.
Keywords: Flood Hazard Modeling; Flood Modeling; River Analysis.
1. Introduction
With the advent of global warming and higher recorded rainfall events, urban flooding as well as levee breach along
waterways is experienced widespread among different countries. This causes significant damage to property, disruption
of economic activity, and may result to loss of life. Flood modeling nowadays are commonly used to forecast probable
flood events or scenarios based on different computed extreme rainfall data. The result of the flood models can serve as
basis for policy makers to enhance the flood hazard preparedness of the community as well as to incorporate flood
mitigating strategies in short term and/or long term project plans. In terms of preparedness, the communities which are
vulnerable or which may encounter flood hazard should be made aware of risks they may be exposed to [1]. In this
regard, it can be deduced that preparedness is the key to minimizing the harmful effect of flooding to the community.
Flood management or control is a public good and it can help bring riparian to negotiate around benefits versus
allocating flows [2]. There are so many things which limit the management options as regards funding for flood hazard
management, space or land utilization, and respect to cultural heritage [3]. These are the concerns that need to be
addressed by the local government units in general.
Tarlac River is the primary waterway which passes through the City of Tarlac. The water flowing along the river
originates from the mountain range along the boundary of the Provinces of Tarlac and Zambales. Tarlac River passes
* Corresponding author: engr_mpm@yahoo.com
http://dx.doi.org/10.28991/cej-2019-03091413
© 2019 by the authors. Licensee C.E.J, Tehran, Iran. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms
and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).