Contemporary Crises in the Modern World-Economy: Demise or another Cyclical Crisis Phase? A Working Paper This paper further develops the research idea in my September 2018 research note: “Using Wallerstein’s Division of Labor Concept to Assess Whether the Crises of the Modern World- System are Cyclical or Terminal” Jim Lunday October 2025 Abstract A central question for world-systems researchers is whether the modern world-economy is exhibiting another cyclical downturn that will be followed by an upturn (with or without a hegemonic transition) or has entered into its demise phase as Immanuel Wallerstein argued. The answer to this question has strategic implications for the work of the world’s many social justice activists. A world-systems analytic theory strategy for developing relevant evidence is to examine process and trend encounters with insurmountable limits within circuits of capital accumulation. Widely recognized insurmountable limits are inherent in the earth-system, but others can be identified. The spread of such encounters across the circuits of capital accumulation that make up the modern world-economy would constitute evidence that demise is underway. Their absence would be evidence that the modern world-economy is in yet another cyclical downturn. Introduction The capitalist modern world-economy is now in the midst of a decades long period of festering economic, ecological, political, and geopolitical crises. Rapidly changing weather patterns are threatening livelihoods and safety for almost all the world’s peoples. The COVID epidemic brought home the growing threat of disease pandemics. National political systems are being destabilized by resurgent right-wing, authoritarian movements and policies, economic and diplomatic relationships among national ruling class leaders 1 are in disarray, and global economic and geopolitical coordination processes are breaking down. Western, and particularly, U.S. global leadership is being severely challenged by the formation of new trade corridors that reorganize global trade (Antonia Colibasanu, 2024; Hunter Stoll, 2024; Jeongmin Seong et al, 1 Defined to be capitalists, their politician allies, and their managerial hirelings.