WELL-BEING AND SOCIAL POLICY VOL 2, NUM. 2, pp. 27-48 27 IS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION A SUBSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL SECURITY?* Mariano Sana Louisiana State University, Department of Sociology and Louisiana Population Data Center msana@lsu.edu Chiung-Yin Hu Louisiana State University, Department of Sociology chu1@lsu.edu Abstract he focus on short-term macroeconomic factors, including unemployment and wages, is insufficient to explain international migration. Institutional factors, bound to change only in the long run, can potentially have a large impact on migration flows. To illustrate this, we analyze Mexico-U.S. migration focusing on social security coverage, an important indicator of job formality. Using retrospective longitudinal data from the Mexican Migration Project, we find that workers are more likely to migrate to the United States when they lack social security coverage, suggesting that job formality discourages international migration. By old age, a history of short-term or moderate migration does not seem to significantly improve a worker’s prospects of exiting the labor force. However, substantial migration experience (10 years or more) does help workers without social security contributions match the retirement prospects of nonmigrants with social security coverage, indicating that long-term migration experience effectively acts as a substitute for social security. Key words: International migration, social security, retirement, informal economy, Mexico. Classification JEL: F22, H55, J26. T Introduction here is certainly no shortage of international migration theories (Massey et al. 1998). While they diverge in disciplinary approach and micro/macro focus, they all stress differences in structural factors between sending and receiving countries. Among these, levels of employment and wages, as well as macroeconomic fluctuations, have long been prominent in migration studies. T * A preliminary version of this article was presented at the International Conference on “The Effects of Migration on Sending Countries”, hosted by The Inter-American Conference on Social Security (CISS) and Universidad Iberoamericana (UIA), Mexico City, February 24-25, 2006. We are thankful for the valuable comments received from Liliana Meza González and other conference participants, as well as from David Lindstrom, Emilio Parrado and two anonymous reviewers. Errors and omissions remain ours.