International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences 37 (1): 49-60, 2011
© NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY, NEW DELHI
The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Hydrological Components due to
Resettlement Activity: SWAT Model Approach
HAILEYESUS BROOK
1*
, MEKURIA ARGAW
2
, HAMEED SULAIMAN
3
AND TAMIRU ALEMAYEHU ABIYE
4
1
Project Officer, Horn of Africa Regional Environmental Center/Network, P.O.Box 8023,Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
2
Environmental Science Program, Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
3
Faculty of Science, Sultan Qaboos University, P.O. Box 36,PC 123,Muscat, Sulatnate of Oman
4
University of the Witwatersrand, School of Geosciences, Private Bag X3, P.O. Box Wits 2050, Johannesburg,
South Africa
* Corresponding author; Email: brook.hailed@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Modification of land use systems constitute use/land cover and hydrology. Though the qualitative impact of disappearance of
forest, agricultural expansion, and modifications of other land use systems is well understood, quantified results are necessary to
understand the magnitude of the effect of a proposed action plan and make informed decisions based on them. Recent advances
in distributed hydrological models integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are of great help in this regard since
they overcome temporal and spatial limitations helping in quantifying these impacts for big watersheds for longer time periods.
The results from the studied watersheds studied revealed that agricultural and forest covered areas significantly differed between
years 1972 and 2007. A distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used in this study to quantify
changes in land use/land cover that impacted hydrology of Anger Gutin resettlement area. Application of statistical analysis for
fitness of observed and simulated flow values using the Nash- Sutcliffe coefficient (E
NS
) and correlation coefficient (R
2
) resulted
0.725 and 0.81 respectively while validation results for the two statistical measurements were 0.62 and 0.68 respectively. Land
use land cover maps of 1972, 1986, and 2007 were used as input to quantify changes that occurred as result of land use changes.
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) carried out to assess significance of differences for means (p # 0.05) for outputs of SWAT in
watersheds studied revealed that there is a significant difference within sub watersheds for all hydrological variables and sediment
simulated except for potential evapotranspiration and sediment concentration. Sediment concentration in sub watersheds that are
found in or around urban areas is found to be higher than other sub watersheds. Water yield also increased during wet seasons
(May - September) by 42.61% and 40.18% in watershed one and two respectively while declined during the dry season (October
– April) by 20.61 % and 24.18 % for watersheds one and two, respectively.
Simulated results for both watersheds supported the qualitative truth that modified land use/land cover affect hydrology. From
the results of the analysis of SWAT, it is concluded that the model can be used as a decision support tool before such big schemes
like resettlement projects commence.
Key Words: Hydrology, Land Use Change, Resettlement, SWAT
INTRODUCTION
Ethiopia is one of the most populous countries in Africa
with over a population of 70 million people and an
annual growth rate of 2.6 million people (CSA 2008).
Eighty percent of the population lives in the northern
highlands, which cover only 45 percent of the country
and suffer from widespread erosion, deforestation, and
loss of nutrients (Fitsum et al. 1999). The economy of
the country is highly dependent on agriculture, which in
turn is dependent on the availability of seasonal rainfall.
Erratic rainfall patterns team up with an already present
land degradation to put population in stress and experi-
ence drought at different times.
Result of these failures have led governing regimes
at different times to take resettlement action plan as a
solution to attain food security through population
distribution from highly dense and degraded areas to less