Severe Loss of Suitable Climatic Conditions for Marsupial Species in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for Conservation Rafael D. Loyola 1 *, Priscila Lemes 2 , Frederico V. Faleiro 2 , Joaquim Trindade-Filho 2 , Ricardo B. Machado 3 1 Department of Ecology, Universidade Federal de Goia ´s, Goia ˆnia, Goia ´s, Brazil, 2 Graduate Program in Ecology and Evolution, Universidade Federal de Goia ´s, Goia ˆnia, Goia ´s, Brazil, 3 Departament of Zoology, Universidade de Brası ´lia, Brası ´lia, Distrito Federal, Brazil Abstract A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages. Citation: Loyola RD, Lemes P, Faleiro FV, Trindade-Filho J, Machado RB (2012) Severe Loss of Suitable Climatic Conditions for Marsupial Species in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for Conservation. PLoS ONE 7(9): e46257. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0046257 Editor: David L. Roberts, University of Kent, United Kingdom Received July 3, 2012; Accepted August 30, 2012; Published September 28, 2012 Copyright: ß 2012 Loyola et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Funding: R.D.L. received a research productivity scholarship from the CNPq (grant #304703/2011-7). P.L. received a PhD scholarship from CNPq. F.V.F. and J.T.-F. received PhD scholarships from CAPES. Conservation Biogeography Lab research has been continuously supported by the CNPq, CAPES, Conservation International Brazil, and MCT-Rede CLIMA. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. * E-mail: rdiasloyola@gmail.com Introduction As a result of Earth’s climate warming and changes in precipitation regimes, the scientific community has a consensual agreement that conservation strategies for managing biodiversity must anticipate the impacts of climate change to be effective [1]. Most studies on climate change have been developed at local scales and use experimental, manipulative schemes, despite the much broader geographical scales at which these changes are expected to affect biodiversity patterns [2]. On the other hand, studies addressing the effects of climate change on biodiversity at continental scales are based on how species’ distribution will be potentially driven by such changes, usually inferred through species distribution models [3]. These models are based on different mathematical functions that establish correlations between species’ occurrences and environmental variables and, once these correlations were established, make it possible to project the model into future climates to predict species responses (assuming species’ niche itself will not respond to these changes) [4]. Species distribution models have been used to predict the current and future species’ distributions [5]. However, different methods for modeling species distribution and different climate models (i.e. the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, AOGCMs) may produce very distinct results increasing the uncertainties among predictions and their applicability to conservation planning [6,7]. Consequently, measuring and map- ping uncertainties are necessary to increase the quality of conservation plans [8,9]. Brazil corresponds to half of South America, and concentrates more than 13% of the world’s biota – in particular, ca. 11% of the world’s mammals [10]. The country holds at least 55 marsupial species ranging from small (ca. 10 g) to large species (ca. 4 kg) distributed mostly in forest areas such as the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest [11]. However, we still know little about the distribution of marsupials in the countryside, especially in the Brazilian Cerrado, and in the Brazilian Pantanal [11]. This lack of knowledge reinforces the importance of generating species distribution models for this group. Further, marsupials are highly threatened by forest fragmentation, although we also still lack detailed information about marsupial responses to this process [12]. Such vulnerability highlights the need for studies about the effects of global changes (e.g. climate and land use changes) on the group to develop strategies for climate change adaptation related to mammal conservation in Brazil. Here we present a comprehensive overview on the likely effects of climate change on the distribution of marsupial species inhabiting Brazil and on the patterns of marsupial species richness PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org 1 September 2012 | Volume 7 | Issue 9 | e46257