Southeast European and Black Sea Studies Vol. 11, No. 1, March 2011, 35–52 ISSN 1468-3857 print/ISSN 1743-9639 online © 2011 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/14683857.2011.558721 http://www.informaworld.com Geo-strategic position as leverage in EU accession: the case of Turkish–EU negotiations on the Nabucco pipeline S ¸aban Kardas ¸* Department of International Relations, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Sogutozu Cad. No. 43, Sogutozu, Ankara 06560, Turkey Taylor and Francis FBSS_A_558721.sgm (Received 23 November 2009; final version received 14 September 2010) 10.1080/14683857.2011.558721 Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 1468-3857 (print)/1743-9639 (online) Article 2011 Taylor & Francis 11 1 0000002011 SabanKardas sabankardas@gmail.com This article examines the Turkish–EU negotiations for the Nabucco Intergovernmental Agreement and the Turkish–EU membership talks to problematize Turkish leaders’ tendency to establish linkages between their country’s geo-strategic value and the EU accession process. It argues that Turkey’s ability to gain strategic leverage depends on the formation of a winning coalition inside the EU in favour of its membership, which among other things, depends on the presence of a joint strategic outlook on the specific issue area. In the case of Nabucco negotiations, short of such consensus, there emerged an anchor credibility dilemma which both prevented linkages between geopolitical position and the accession process, and stalled strategic cooperation in energy security. Keywords: Turkish–EU relations; accession process; anchor credibility dilemma; energy security; Nabucco; South Stream; Gazprom; East-West energy corridor; Southern gas corridor The signing of the Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) in July 2009 for the Nabucco natural gas pipeline, which will transport Caspian basin and Middle Eastern energy resources to European markets, was publicized by the Turkish leadership as yet another vindication of the country’s increasing geopolitical clout, as well as Ankara’s acquisition of an important leverage in Turkey–EU negotiations. Considering the tight relationship between pipelines and geopolitics, it might be justified to expect this development to enhance Turkey’s position in the energy chessboard. Since the agree- ment came following intense negotiations, it also boosted Turkish leaders’ self- confidence, who view it a major foreign policy victory. Encouraged by Turkey’s ‘emergence as a major transportation corridor’, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yıldız argued that ‘with Nabucco, we already deserved the EU [membership]’ (Cihan Haber Ajansı 2009). A more nuanced analysis is needed, however, to assess the true meaning of the Nabucco project for Turkey’s geopolitical importance and its implications for Turkish–EU relations, beyond the self-ascribed significance found in Turkish leaders’ statements. For a proper understanding of the Turkish government’s framing of the implications of Nabucco in Turkish foreign policy, this article contextualizes such arguments as part of a larger question: Turkish leaders’ attempts to link Turkey’s stra- tegic position in specific issue areas and its EU membership goal. The article, thus, *Email: skardas@etu.edu.tr Downloaded By: [Kardas, Saban] At: 12:18 8 April 2011