Arctic environmental security and abrupt climate change GlobalInt Working Paper #1, 11 Mar 2011 Chad M Briggs, Ph.D. Principal, Global Interconnections LLC chad@globalint.org Introduction The past two decades have witnessed increasing concern over new security threats and risks, from environmental issues to terrorism and economic instability. The traditional definitions of national or international security, based upon narrowly defined and easily measured metrics of violent interstate conflict, have proven inadequate for describing the spectrum of risks that the international community now faces. The shifts in security discourse and policy since the end of the Cold War have affected academic, policy and intelligence communities, while increasingly engaging certain scientific communities that had previously little contact with or interest in issues of international security. Policy interest in environmental security since 1989 has rested upon both a need to define new operational missions for existing security forces, and growing realization that environmental changes may bring overwhelming pressures to bear upon critical systems and vulnerable regions. Arctic security had long been defined by the Cold War as the naval and aerial proving ground between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces. Yet even during those times, concerns about the environment persisted and grew. Sweden was the host of the first Earth Summit in 1972, and the Nordic contributions to environmental policy (both at the European and international levels) have long been recognized (Christian, 1998). Security and the environment has also long been intertwined, whether in the work of Belonna and its concerns regarding nuclear waste in Arctic waters, to Sweden’s detection of radiation from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident in the Soviet Union. The continued focus of Nordic states on environmental questions related to human well-being and international development concerns have resulted in perspectives distinct from mainstream American definitions, as exemplified by the 2008 Swedish report on climate and security (SIDA, 2008). Definitions may have shifted since the 1980s, but still the Arctic remains a key region of interest for environmental security. Much attention has been paid lately to the geopolitical ramifications of Arctic sea ice melt, whether on the opening of the Northwest Passage or possible exploitation of resources in formerly inaccessible waters (Borgerson, 2008). Yet more crucial may be the role of the Arctic (and Antarctic) in potentially abrupt climate system changes. The purpose of this chapter is to explore the key role the Arctic plays as a geographic locus for catastrophic environmental risks, and how these present new and untraditional security risks. Exploration of both topics has implications not only for the Arctic states, but for how cascading effects of climate change may have severe security impacts on the rest of the world. Security and climate change Connections between environment and security began with medical concerns over nuclear weapons tests in the early 1960s, but the debate over environmental determinants for security concerns dates to 1989. Dominant among the earlier 1990s studies were those postulating that increased 1