Avoided deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia: Simulating the effect of the Juma Sustainable Development Reserve Aurora Miho Yanai, Philip Martin Fearnside ⇑ , Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro Graça, Euler Melo Nogueira National Institute for Research in the Amazon – INPA, Av. André Araújo, No. 2936, CEP 69060-000, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil article info Article history: Received 29 November 2011 Received in revised form 15 June 2012 Accepted 18 June 2012 Keywords: REDD Land cover change Modeling Leakage Protected areas Carbon emissions abstract The Juma Sustainable Development Reserve, located in Brazil’s state of Amazonas, was the first protected area in Brazil to be benefited by a Reducing Emissions from a Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) pro- ject. However, the carbon benefits of REDD projects may be compromised by leakage, or displacement of deforestation to areas outside of the reserve. Through environmental modeling techniques it is possible to simulate scenarios that represent changes in land use and land cover and thus assess the possible trajec- tories and magnitude of deforestation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Juma reserve in reducing deforestation and to estimate projected carbon emission by 2050. The simulated scenarios were: (1) baseline scenario, without the creation of the Juma reserve; (2) scenario with leakage (SL) where the creation of the reserve would cause a spatial shift in deforestation, and (3) scenario with reduced leakage (SRL), where the amount of deforestation resulting from leakage is reduced. Considering the study area as a whole (Juma reserve +120-km buffer zone), there would be a 16.0% (14,695 km 2 ) reduc- tion in forest cover by 2050 in the baseline scenario, 15.9% (14,647 km 2 ) in the SL and 15.4% (14,219 km 2 ) in the SRL, as compared to what was present in 2008. The loss of forest cover within the limits of the Juma reserve by 2050 would be 18.9% (1052 km 2 ) in the baseline scenario and 7.1% (395 km 2 ) in the SL and SRL. From the simulated scenarios, the carbon stock in the total study area was estimated to be reduced from 1.63 Pg C (Pg = 10 15 g = 1 billion tons) in 2008 to 1.37 Pg C in 2050 in the baseline scenario and in the SL and to 1.38 Pg C in the SRL. In the area of the Juma reserve, the carbon stock would be reduced from 0.10 Pg C in 2008 to 0.08 Pg C in 2050 (baseline) or 0.09 Pg C (SL and SRL). The Juma reserve was effective in reducing carbon emission by 2050, but the reduction would be substantially less than that calculated in the Juma REDD project. Leakage must be accounted for in REDD projects because the deforestation resulting from this effect could generate ‘‘hot air’’ (carbon credit with no additionality). Over longer time horizons the benefits of reserves are greater and leakage losses are recovered. Ó 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction The global emissions of greenhouse gases associated with burn- ing fossil fuels and changes in land use have already reached 9 Pg C year 1 (IPCC, 2007) (1 Pg = 10 15 g = 1 billion tons). Emissions from land-use change represent 10–12% (van der Werf et al., 2009) to 17% (IPCC, 2007) of global anthropogenic emissions. In Brazil, 77% (0.34 Pg C) of the carbon emissions in 2005 are attributed to land use, land-use change and forestry (MCT, 2010). In Brazilian Amazonia, deforestation has historically been con- centrated in the ‘‘arc of deforestation’’ along the southern and east- ern edges of the forest, but recently it has advanced to the southern part of the state of Amazonas (Becker, 2005; INPE, 2010). In re- sponse, one of the strategies implemented to contain the defores- tation in this region is creation of protected areas. These areas, in addition to impeding deforestation (Ferreira et al., 2005; Nepstad et al., 2006), play a basic role in providing environmental services such as biodiversity maintenance, water cycling and carbon stor- age (Fearnside, 2008a; Wunder et al., 2008). Creation and management of protected areas in Amazonia is costly (IDESAM, 2009). For this reason, financial mechanisms have been promoted to obtain resources for conservation of the tropical forests, such as Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) projects (Nepstad et al., 2007; Stickler et al., 2009). REDD mechanisms are the subject of considerable contro- versy concerning their effectiveness, their social and economic im- pacts and their proper place in global-warming mitigation (see reviews by Angelsen (2008), Moutinho et al. (2011) and Fearnside (2011, 2012)). Brazilian federal and state governments consider 0378-1127/$ - see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.06.029 ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 92 3643 1822; fax: +55 92 3642 8909. E-mail addresses: yanai@inpa.gov.br (A.M. Yanai), pmfearn@inpa.gov.br (P.M. Fearnside), pmlag@inpa.gov.br (P.M.L.A. Graça), euler@inpa.gov.br (E.M. Nogueira). Forest Ecology and Management 282 (2012) 78–91 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Forest Ecology and Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/foreco