Oxford Review of Education, Vol. 25, No. 3, 1999 Statistical Aspects of Baseline Assessment and its Relationship to End of Key Stage One Assessment IAN SCHAGEN, MARIAN SAINSBURY & STEVE STRAND ABSTRACT The current proliferation of baseline assessment schemes for Reception pupils has a number of aims, one of which involves the concept of `value-added’ from Reception to Key Stage 1. This paper looks at results from data collected for three baseline schemes, and investigates what can be said about national levels of performance. It also looks at evidence on relationships between baseline and Key Stage 1 test results, and critically evaluates the extent to which such data can be used for `value-added’ analyses. INTRODUCTION As from September 1998, each school in England and Wales which takes in Reception- age children (Year R) has had in place an accredited baseline assessment scheme. In total contrast to the nationally set and controlled assessments for the ends of Key Stages 1, 2 and 3, there is not one single baseline assessment scheme but a whole raft of them available for schools to implement (90 at presentÐsee QCA, 1998). Some of these schemes have been developed by individual LEAs, and are only available to schools within the LEA (`restricted’ schemes), while others are available to schools outside the LEA, although principally designed for schools in the LEA (`semi-restricted’ schemes). Sixteen schemes are fully `open’, available to all schools in the country, and generally provided by commercial organisations. One natural consequence of this policy of `letting a thousand ¯owers bloom’ has been a certain air of competition between schemes, plus a general air of confusion about what different schemes can offer schools and how they might choose the scheme which best suits their needs. It is probably therefore worthwhile thinking about the overall aims of baseline assessment, the dif®culties inherent in meeting those aims, and the criteria which schools might apply to different schemes to see if they meet their own needs. We may identify three general purposes behind baseline assessment: 1. To identify the existing skills and aptitudes which each child brings with them at the start of compulsory schooling, so that their schooling may be tailored to their own individual needs. 2. To compare the skills and aptitudes of a group of children with those of their peers across the LEA or the country, to identify particular strengths and weak- nesses which need to be taken into account for the group as a whole. 3. To indicate potential outcomes at a later stage, in particular the end of Key Stage 1, which can be taken into account in target-setting for individuals or the group. From a statistical point of view, the last two purposes are most relevant and challeng- ISSN 0305-4985 (print)/ISSN 1465-3915 (online)/99/030359-09 Ó 1999 Taylor & Francis Ltd