COSMO-ART: Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases model (Vogel et al., 2009) online- coupled to COSMO weather prediction model (Baldauf et al., 2011) Simulation period: 15 Aug – 13 Sept 2007 Horizontal spacing: 2.8 km Vertical extent: ~20km, 1 st layer: ~20m Initial & Boundary conditions: http://www.dwd.de/ & http://www.acd.ucar.edu/ E. Athanasopoulou 1 , E. Gerasopoulos 1 , H. Vogel 2 , M. Gratsea 1 , B. Vogel 2 , S. Kazadzis 1 and E. Liakakou 1 1 Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece 2 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany contact info: eathana@gmail.com group site: http://apcg.meteo.noa.gr/ Summer 2007 was an all time record hot summer, combined with a prolonged drought period and strong winds. Maximum temperatures recorded in Athens (Fig. 1) bear a close resemblance to temperatures projected to occur during the latter part of the century (2071–2100) (Founda and Giannakopoulos, 2009). 4. Influence of wild fires on Athens 5. Atmospheric chemistry during summer 2007 Acknowledgment Part of this work, related to observations has received funding from the project CITYZEN (FP7/2007-2013, under Grant Agreement no. 212095) Aerosol observations and predictions in the southeastern Europe during the extreme summer 2007 Fig. 1. Temperature evolution over Athens (NOA station) during summer 2007 1. The extreme summer 2007 in Greece Fire Weather Index values over Peloponnese (Athanasopoulou et al., 2012) strongly indicate that these meteorological conditions resulted to a detrimental record of the most extensive and destructive forest fires in the recent history of the country (Fig. 2): 2700 km 2 of forest, olive groves and farmland were destroyed by the fires and 64 people lost their lives (Liu et al., 2009; Founda and Giannakopoulos, 2009). Thessaloniki Athens Fig. 2. MODIS image of smoke from fires in Greece, 25 August 2007 Peloponnese Evia 2. Model details & Measurements Source: http://www.globalfiredata.org Source: http://www.tno.nl/ Fig. 3. Primary Organic Aerosol hourly emission rates COSMO-ART modeling domain over Greece kg h -1 cell -1 PM10: 10 National Network sites (Fig. 4) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD): Ground measurements (Fig. 4) using a Multi-Filter Rotating (MFR) Shadowband Radiometer (daytime averages at 500 nm) (Gerasopoulos et al., 2011). MODIS retrievals (at 550 nm): http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni/overvi ew/index.html#instances References Athanasopoulou E, Giannakopoulos C, Vogel H, Rieger D, Knote C, Hatzaki M, Vogel B, Karali A (2012) Geophysical Research Abstracts, 14, EGU2012-9558-1 Baldauf M, Seifert A, Forstner J, Majewski D, Raschendorfer M, Reinhardt T (2011) Mon Wea Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR- D-10-05013.1 (e-view) Boylan JW and Russell AG (2006) Atmos Environ, 40 (26), 4946-4959 Founda D & Giannakopoulos C (2009) Global and Planetary Change, 67, 227-236 Gerasopoulos E, Amiridis, V, Kazadzis, S, et al. (2011) Atmos Chem Phys, 11, 2145–2159 Vogel B, Vogel H, Baumer D, Bangert M, Lundgren K, Rinke R, Stanelle T (2009) Atmos Chem Phys, 9, 8661–8680 Gerasopoulos E, Kokkalis P, Amiridis V, Liakakou E, Pérez C, Haustein K, Eleftheratos K, Andreae MO, Andreae TW, Zerefos CS (2009) Ann Geophys, 27, 2903-2912 Liu Y, Khan R, Chaloulakou A, Koutrakis P (2009) Atmos Environ, 43, 3310-3318 3. Comparisons of observations & predictions Fig. 4. PM10 national network stations Thessaloniki Athens 6200 – 4100 – 2815 – 695 – 20(m) – 17Aug 20 23 26 29 1Sept 4 7 10 13 6200 – 4100 – 2815 – 695 – 20(m) – 6200 – 4100 – 2815 – 695 – 20(m) – 6200 – 4100 – 2815 – 695 – 20(m) – Peloponnese Athens Evia Evia Fig. 8. Temporal evolution of the vertical profiles of Primary Organic Aerosol (OC) at the sites shown in Fig. 1 (above), hourly spatial distribution and cross section of OC during the 1 st fire event (left plots) & the 2 nd fire event (right plots) that reached Athens, as predicted by COSMO-ART 08/15 08/18 08/21 08/24 08/27 08/30 09/02 09/05 09/08 09/11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Dates 2007 PM10 concentrations (ug/m 3 ) Urban Thessaloniki COSMO-ART predictions National network measurements 08/15 08/18 08/21 08/24 08/27 08/30 09/02 09/05 09/08 09/11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Dates 2007 PM10 concentrations (ug/m 3 ) Urban Athens COSMO-ART predictions National network measurements Network measurements-Dream model dust 08/15 08/18 08/21 08/24 08/27 08/30 09/02 09/05 09/08 09/11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Dates 2007 PM10 concentrations (ug/m 3 ) Suburban Thessaloniki COSMO-ART predictions National network measurements 08/15 08/18 08/21 08/24 08/27 08/30 09/02 09/05 09/08 09/11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Dates 2007 PM10 concentrations (ug/m 3 ) Suburban Athens COSMO-ART predictions National network measurements Network measurements-Dream model dust 08/15 08/18 08/21 08/24 08/27 08/30 09/02 09/05 09/08 09/11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Dates 2007 PM10 concentrations (ug/m 3 ) Industrial Thessaloniki COSMO-ART predictions National network measurements 08/15 08/18 08/21 08/24 08/27 08/30 09/02 09/05 09/08 09/11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Dates 2007 PM10 concentrations (ug/m 3 ) Background Athens COSMO-ART predictions National network measurements Network measurements-Dream model dust Fig. 5. Temporal PM10 variation from observations & predictions at the 10 sites shown in Fig. 4, during 15 August -13 September 2007. ‘Dream model dust’ refers to dust contribution in surface PM10 concentration from the DREAM model. Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of columnar AOD (at 550 nm) from MODIS satellite retrievals (left) and COSMO-ART predictions (right) over Greece during short periods of summer 2007. TOA 28% NITR 3% AMM 10% SULF 23% EC 9% OTHER 20% SSA 7% Thessaloniki TOA 42% NITR 0% AMM 5% SULF 14% EC 10% OTHER 13% SSA 16% Athens - Wild Fires period TOA 21% NITR 1% AMM 6% SULF 17% EC 8% OTHER 15% SSA 32% Athens Fig. 9. Mean chemical composition of PM2.5 concentrations (%) by COSMO-ART, averaged over Thessaloniki sites (shown in Fig. 4), Athens sites (shown in Fig. 4) during the non- fire period & vice versa. Fig. 10. Temporal variation of gaseous & PM1 species concentrations (right) and aerosol carbon ratios (left) predicted by COSMO-ART at the sites shown in Fig. 1 during 15 August -13 September 2007. OC/EC is the organic to elemental carbon ratio in PM1 & SOA/TOA is the secondary to total organic PM1 ratio. 17-20 Aug: peak areas are captured; strength of local urban sources is likely underestimated 25-28 Aug: fire event at Peloponnese & trans-boundary pollution from Istanbul are nicely captured; Discrepancies reflect mainly a Saharan dust intrusion, not treated by the current model application 1-6 Sept: agreement during N. transport suggests enhanced secondary aerosol formation, because the current COSMO-ART application does not incorporate aerosol boundary conditions 1st fire event, 24- 28 Aug: 45% of PM10 originate from the Evian plume; mass transfer is up to 1.5 km 2nd fire event, 1 Sept: 20% of PM10 originate from the Peloponnesian plume; mass transfer is up to 10 km Under fire influence, half of PM2.5 mass is carbonaceous Athens is more influenced by SSA, especially during NE winds and lower temperatures (September) COSMO-ART performs better during the non heat-wave period in (September) and over suburban & background areas Variability is well captured; levels are underestimated Industrial sources in Greece are likely mistreated Fig. 6. Temporal AOD variation from observations & predictions over Athens (site shown in Fig. 4). ‘DREAM dust’ refers to dust contribution to AOD from the DREAM model. increases in organic to elemental carbon (from 1 to 10), together with sharp decreases in secondary to primary organic components (from 0.9 to 0.1) Primary Organic Aerosol increases 5 (Athens) to 60 times (Peloponnese) during fires, depending on the strength and the proximity to the event Secondary Organic Aerosol & Elemental Carbon levels are more influenced by urban pollution (31 Aug–1 Sept, Athens) than fires (25-25 Aug, all sites) The burnt area acts as an urban zone for Ozone: Nitrogen Oxide increases (up to 30 μg m -3 , all sites) lead to Ozone losses (from 60 to 40 μg m -3 , all sites). Fire events are indicated by sharp 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 17/8 20/8 23/8 26/8 29/8 1/9 4/9 7/9 10/9 13/9 AOD 550 nm (unitless) dates 2007 Athens DREAM dust MFR 500nm MODIS MFR - DREAM dust COSMO-ART y = 0.76x + 0.07 r² = 0.51 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 MFR- DREAM dust COSMO-ART Table 1. Prediction skill metrics of COSMO-ART daily ground total PM10 a concentration against measurements b from 10 stations of the National Network during 15 August - 13 September 2007. Sites are shown in Fig. 4. Site Predicted (μg m -3 ) Aug/Sept Observed (μg m -3 ) Aug/Sept MFB c (%) Aug/Sept MFE c (%) Aug/Sept r 2 Aug/Sept Thessaloniki Urban 1 34/ 18 49/ 30 -40/ -58 41/ 59 0.15/ 0.41 Urban 2 31, 17 48/ 28 -48/ -53 50/ 53 0.20/ 0.71 Suburban 17/ 11 36/ 16 -73/ -38 73/ 43 0.23/ 0.34 Industrial 28/ 13 64/ 35 -78/ -99 78/ 99 0.13/ 0.11 Athens Urban 36/ 41 62/ 39 -53/ 9 54/ 15 0.41/ 0.67 Suburban 1 25/ 33 41/ 23 -46/ 43 47/ 45 0.41/ 0.48 Suburban 2 32/ 28 47/ 26 -39/ 46 41/ 47 0.58/ 0.57 Suburban 3 24/ 33 47/ 26 -62/ 29 62/ 32 0.29/ 0.53 Suburban 4 29/ 37 52/ 34 -58/ 11 58/ 20 0.53/ 0.51 Background 17/ 22 29/ 14 -47/ 48 47/ 48 0.38/ 0.40 Average Thessaloniki 28/ 15 49/ 27 -60/ -62 61/ 64 0.18/ 0.39 Athens 27/ 32 46/ 27 -51/ 31 52/ 35 0.43/ 0.53 a model predictions for PM2.5/PM10 are more than 90%. Local ratio measurements during August are 51%. Thus, PM2.5 predictions are multiplied by 0.51 b the current application does not account for Saharan dust. Thus, PM10 measurements are reduced by the surface dust concentration calculated by the Dream model (Gerasopoulos et al., 2009) c   , 2 1 1            N i m o o m C C C C N MFB , 2 1 1            N i m o o m C C C C N MFE where Cm is the modeled and Co is the observed hourly value for the total PM10 concentration (μg m -3 ) at the site i of N. Optimal performance: MFE ≤ +50% and MFB ≤ ±30%, Acceptable performance: MFE ≤ +75% and MFB ≤ ±60%, Poor performance: MFE > +75% and MFB > ±60% (Boylan & Russell, 2006).