Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Gebiete
57, 253-264 (1981)
Zeitschrift flir
Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie
und verwandte Gebiete
© Springer-Verlag 1981
Optimal Stopping and Supermartingales
over Partially Ordered Sets
A. Mandelbaum
1
and R.J. Vanderbei
2
1 Dept. of Operations Research, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y. 14853, USA
2 Dept. of Mathematics, Cornell University, Ithaca, N,y' 14853, USA
1. Introduction
1.1. The subject of this paper is the problem of optimal stopping for discrete
multiparameter stochastic processes; in particular, for a family of Markov pro-
cesses.
In 1953, Snell [12J discovered the relation between optimal stopping of a
random sequence and supermartingales. In 1963, Dynkin [3] described the op-
timal stopping rule for a Markov process in terms of excessive functions. In
1966, Haggstrom [7J, motivated by problems of sequential experimental de-
sign, extended Snell's results to processes indexed by a tree. All these results
are particular cases of the general theory of optimal stopping for a family of
random variables indexed by a partially ordered set. This general setting was
considered by Krengel and Sucheston [8] who proved a number of general
theorems and applied them to the case of functionals of a family of indepen-
dent identically distributed random variables.
We start by discussing, in the spirit of Snell's theory, the general optimal
stopping problem over a partially ordered set. The proofs of the main theorems
are similar to Haggstrom's proofs but for completeness we outline them briefly
in Sect. 6. Our emphasis is on the nature of stopping points taking values in
partially ordered sets. Not all stopping points are appropriate but only a cer-
tain subclass which we call predictable. An important result is that the super-
martingale sampling theorem holds for predictable stopping points.
1
The general theory is applied to a family of Markov chains and we get
results analogous to Dynkin's results. An example for two independent random
walks is considered in Sect. 3.
Finally, we discuss the relation between optimal stopping with time con-
straints and Walsh's theory of multiharmonic functions (Sect. 4).
1.2. Let Zt be a sequence of random variables adapted to a filtration $',. The
classical optimal stopping problem is to find a stopping time T* which is op-
Walsh [15] has extended this to the continuous two parameter case
0044-3719/81/005 7/025 3/$02.40