Rational choice and the political bases of changing Israeli counterinsurgency strategy 1 bjos_1375 482..503 Robert J. Brym and Robert Andersen Abstract Israeli counterinsurgency doctrine holds that the persistent use of credible threat and disproportionate military force results in repeated victories that eventually teach the enemy the futility of aggression. The doctrine thus endorses classical rational choice theory’s claim that narrow cost-benefit calculations shape fixed action rationales.This paper assesses whether Israel’s strategic practice reflects its counterinsurgency doctrine by exploring the historical record and the association between Israeli and Palestinian deaths due to low-intensity warfare. In contrast to the expectations of classical rational choice theory, the evidence suggests that institutional, cultural and historical forces routinely override simple cost-benefit calculations. Changing domestic and international circumstances periodically cause revisions in counterinsurgency strategy. Credible threat and disproportion- ate military force lack the predicted long-term effect. Keywords: Low-intensity warfare; strategy; counterterrorism; Israel; Palestine; Middle East Introduction This article examines the impact on Israeli counterinsurgency policy of Israeli deaths caused by Palestinian insurgents. Specifically, we analyse how the fre- quency of Israeli killing of Palestinians responded to the level of Palestinian killing of Israelis between 1987 and 2007. Leading strategic thinkers on the Israeli side have generally argued that Israel’s response to Palestinian violence should be, and has been, disproportionate. Nevertheless, using data spanning this recent 21-year period, we demonstrate considerable variation in Israeli reaction to Israeli deaths caused by Palestinians.We categorize responses into three types: ‘normal’, disproportionately severe and disproportionately mild. Brym and Andersen (Department of Sociology, University of Toronto) (Corresponding author email: rbrym@chass.utoronto.ca) © London School of Economics and Political Science 2011 ISSN 0007-1315 print/1468-4446 online. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA on behalf of the LSE. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-4446.2011.01375.x The British Journal of Sociology 2011 Volume 62 Issue 3