International Journal of Management (IJM), ISSN 0976 – 6502(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6510(Online), Volume 2, Number 1, Jan- April (2011), © IAEME 79 OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY AND TIMES SERIES CHANGES IN TAICO BANK – AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODEL Dr. S. RAJAMOHAN Professor, Alagappa Institute of Management Alagappa University, Karaikudi-630 004 S. PASUPATHI Associate Professor in Commerce, Vivekananda College Thiruvedakam (West), Madurai -625 217 ABSTRACT The Tamilnadu Industrial Cooperative Bank established in 1962 provides credit to industrial cooperatives like tea factories, match factories, coir industries and the like in the state. It has 32 branches located at district headquarters. In this paper an attempt is made to know the operational efficiency and the times series changes in overall functioning of the bank during the period of analysis through a model called Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). It was found that the financial performance of the bank is consistent for the first five years (1998-99 to 2002-03) and a radical change is occurred in the overall functioning of the bank during the last six years of the study (2004-04 to 2008-09). Moreover, out of the 47 ratios, two thirds of the ratios show an increasing trend and the rest of them shows a decreasing trend during the period analysis. Also there is a constant increase and significant changes in the five variables namely operating profit, gross income, capital employed, operating expenses and interest expenses (11.14% each year). Thus the TAICO Bank has performed financially well during the period of analysis. INTRODUCTION The Tamilnadu Industrial Cooperative Bank was established and started functioning from November, 1962. It provides a wide range of financial assistance to various industrial cooperatives, small scale industries, partnership firms, joint stock companies and the like engaged in small, tiny, cottage and village industries in the non farm sectors. In this paper an attempt has been made to identify the time series changes in the overall functioning of the bank through a model called ARIMA model. SCOPE OF THE STUDY The present research study is pursued to analyse the financial performance of the bank, its time series changes and prediction about the trends in the overall functioning to the extent possible. International Journal of Management (IJM) ISSN 0976 – 6502(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6510(Online) Volume 2, Number 1, Jan- April (2011), pp. 79-83 © IAEME, http://www.iaeme.com/ijm.html I J M © I A E M E