Journal of Post Keynesian Economics / Summer 2010, Vol. 32, No. 4 623
© 2010 M.E. Sharpe, Inc.
0160–3477 / 2010 $9.50 + 0.00.
DOI 10.2753/PKE0160-3477320408
ESTEBAN PÉREZ CALDENTEY AND MATÍAS VERNENGO
Back to the future: Latin America’s
current development strategy
Abstract: In the years 2002 to 2006, Latin America registered, on average, one
of the highest growth rates in over two decades. The empirical evidence suggests
that the good economic performance of the past six years is increasingly and
strongly correlated either with a positive terms-of-trade shock, mostly in South
America, or with the increase in the flow of remittances, particularly in Central
and North America. In other words, Latin America now exports commodities and
people. The paper shows the possible limitations of this development strategy.
Key words: development strategy, remittances, terms of trade.
In the years 2002 to 2006, Latin America registered one of the highest
average growth rates in over two decades. Aggregate demand decomposi-
tion into the three major sectors of the economy (external, government,
and private) shows that the growth trajectory is explained mainly by the
favorable performance of the external sector and, to a lesser extent, by
the increase in the debt of the private sector.
1
Since the late 1990s, Latin America has been able to reduce its current
account imbalance, and from 2002 onward, managed to achieve a surplus.
The improvement in the external sector conditions is attributable partly
to a price commodity boom that benefited a subset of Latin American
countries—namely, those that specialize in the exports of commodity
products—comprised of mainly South American economies and Mexico.
The commodity boom was triggered in part by the increased demand for
Esteban Pérez Caldentey is an Economic Affairs Officer at the Economic Commission
for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) (Santiago, Chile). Matías Vernengo
is an Associate Professor at the University of Utah. The opinions here expressed are
the authors’ and may not coincide with those of the institutions with which they are
affiliated. Preliminary versions were presented at Facultad Latinamericana de Cienias
Sociales (FLACSO), Quito, and the University of Utah, March 2008, and the authors
thank several comments by participants. The authors thank the valuable comments
made by an anonymous referee and comments by Jan Kregel and Mark Weisbrot.
1
See Eatwell and Taylor (2000) and Godley (2000).