104 Int. J. Technology, Policy and Management, Vol. 10, Nos. 1/2, 2010
Copyright © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
Supporting and evaluating emerging technologies:
a review of approaches
Harro van Lente
Associate Professor Innovation Studies,
Faculty of Geosciences,
Department of Innovation and Environmental Studies,
University of Utrecht,
PO BOX 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
E-mail: h.vanlente@geo.uu.nl
Abstract: New technologies, such as genomics or nanotechnology, emerge
together with high expectations and with huge uncertainties. This creates a
specific condition for innovation policies and their evaluation. The reduction of
uncertainty – especially needed in emerging technologies – may actually lead
to unfavourable situations, such as rigid routines that hinder innovative new
options or protective niches that foster less-adapted technology. Three
dedicated approaches to evaluate and orient emerging technologies are
reviewed that start from, respectively, technology assessment, the formation of
niches and the formation of networks. These approaches seek to monitor,
evaluate and optimise the processes by which technologies are shaped and
stimulate learning between all parties involved.
Keywords: emerging technology; uncertainty; technology dynamics;
evaluation, technology policy.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: van Lente, H. (2010)
‘Supporting and evaluating emerging technologies: a review of approaches’,
Int. J. Technology, Policy and Management, Vol. 10, Nos. 1/2, pp.104–115.
Biographical notes: Harro van Lente is an Associate Professor of Innovation
Studies and Programme Director of the MSc Science and Innovation
Management, University of Utrecht. He studied Physics and Philosophy at the
University of Twente and he has been involved in a wide range of studies in the
area of technology, innovation and society. His research focuses on the role of
needs and expectations in the dynamics of emerging technologies.
1 Introduction: the case of emerging technologies
Patterns of innovations will be different across different areas, and this will have its
consequences for the possibilities to intervene and to assess developments. It matters a
lot, for instance, whether technological change takes place in more traditional and static
areas, or in more dynamic and uncertain areas. In the former case, there will be a
relatively stable set of producers, a well-known market and more or less known user
preferences. Competition amongst producers will be in terms of costs and services
offered (Dosi et al., 1988; Utterback, 1994). As a consequence, innovation policies and
evaluations can be designed against a stable background.