ecological modelling 197 ( 2 0 0 6 ) 221–236 available at www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel Modeling the spread of the Emerald Ash Borer Todd K. BenDor a,* , Sara S. Metcalf b , Lauren E. Fontenot b , Brandi Sangunett c , Bruce Hannon b a Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois, 111 Temple Buell Hall, 611 Taft Drive, Champaign, IL 61820, United States b Department of Geography, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, United States c Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, United States article info Article history: Received 17 April 2005 Received in revised form 16 February 2006 Accepted 3 March 2006 Published on line 18 April 2006 Keywords: Spatial modeling Cellular automata Dynamic modeling Invasive species Emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) Spatially explicit modeling Spatial dispersion Ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) abstract Recently, an invasive Asian beetle known as the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipen- nis Coleoptera: Buprestidae) has emerged as a threat to ash trees in the Midwestern United States and Canada [McCullough, D.G., Katovich, S.A., 2004. Pest Alert: Emerald Ash Borer. United States Forest Service, Northeastern Area. NA-PR-02-04]. Significant infestations in Michigan and nearby areas have all but doomed nearly 1 billion native ash trees. However, surrounding regions may still be able to prevent tree damage from occurring at the scale once inflicted by Dutch elm disease in the 1970s. This paper presents an argument for the establishment of a widely accessible knowledgebase of information on the EABs spread capabilities. We argue that spatial dynamic modeling stands as a flexible and powerful decision support system platform. We present initial simulations of EAB spread scenar- ios constructed using tree information and land use data collected for DuPage County, IL, an uninfected suburban county in the Chicago metropolitan area. These simulations test policies focused on impeding the costly spread of the beetle. This analysis also presents a framework for further studies assessing the economic impacts on municipalities and coun- ties due to tree removal costs and aesthetic damage. Our work points to human driven movement as the major vector for EAB spread throughout our study area. Here, the focus falls on the ability of state and county implemented firewood quarantines to act as effective policies for slowing EAB spread. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction During the summer of 2002, officials with the Michigan Department of Agriculture Pesticide and Plant Pest Man- agement Division and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced the discovery of a newly-introduced exotic- invasive Asian beetle known as the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis Coleoptera: Buprestidae). By the time the announcement was made, the EAB had already spread ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 217 333 5172; fax: +1 217 244 1717. E-mail address: bendor@uiuc.edu (T.K. BenDor). throughout five southeast Michigan counties (Bauer et al., 2003a). Although firewood quarantines have been mandated in Michigan and nearby areas in Ontario, Canada, reports of EAB spread through wood products such as nursery stock and firewood into Ohio, Indiana, Maryland, and Virginia (McCullough and Katovich, 2004), have belied the efficacy of these quarantine policies. The economic and environmental impacts of the EAB have been acutely felt in southeastern Michigan where officials have already found fatal damage to the interior cambium 0304-3800/$ – see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.03.003