6 Managing biodiversity in the light of climate change: current biological effects and future impacts __________ Terry L. Root, Diana Liverman and Chris Newman Now there is one outstandingly important fact regarding Spaceship Earth, and that is that no instruction book came with it. (R. Buckminster Fuller (1895–1983), Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth, 1963.) Introduction Climate is one of the primary controls on species diversity and distribution globally, and past climate changes have surely modified biodiversity. Thus, predicted changes in global and regional climates as a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide have tremendous implications for species and habitat conserva- tion. As carbon dioxide increases are associ- ated with human activities, principally the burning of fossil fuels and through deforest- ation, climate change poses a challenge to development, international environmental policy and resource consumption. This is par- ticularly so in the developed world where, per capita, emissions of carbon dioxide are high- est. Climate change must become an integral consideration in conservation, linking those concerned with non-human life on the planet with the polluting activities of its human inhabitants. Many earlier predictions of global warming are becoming a reality as glaciers melt, hotter summers become more frequent, and in many places the distributions of species begin to shift. Britain’s Chief Scientist, David King, sounded a dramatic warning when, in 2004, he identified climate change as a greater risk to society than terrorism (King 2004). At the Kyoto Climate Summit in 1997, dozens of eminent scientists issued a World Scientists’ Call of Action. They stated, ‘Climate change will accelerate the appalling pace at which species are now being extirpated, especially in vulnerable ecosystems. One-fourth of the known species of mammals are threatened, and half of these may be gone within a decade. Possibly one-third of all species may be lost before the end of the next century’. The recent Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report agreed that ‘the balance of scientific evidence suggests that there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide if global mean surface tem- perature increases more than 2˚C above pre- industrial levels or at rates greater than 0.2˚C Macdonald/Key Topics in Conservation Biology 1405122498_4_006 Final Proof page 85 6.5.2006 2:49am