Savo et al.: Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature patterns and their possible impacts on vegetation (Tolfa-Cerite area) - 243 - APPLIED ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 10(3): 243-266. http://www.ecology.uni-corvinus.hu ● ISSN 1589 1623 (Print) ● ISSN 1785 0037 (Online)  2012, ALÖKI Kft., Budapest, Hungary LONG-TERM CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AND THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON VEGETATION (TOLFA-CERITE AREA, CENTRAL ITALY) SAVO, V. 1* – DE ZULIANI, E. 1,2 – SALVATI, L. 3 – PERINI, L. 4 – CANEVA, G. 1 1 Environmental Biology Department, University Roma Tre, Viale Marconi 446, I-00146, Rome, Italy (phone: + 39-06.57336374, fax: +39-06.57336321) 2 Macchiotonda Natural Reserve, Castello di Santa Severa, I-00058, Santa Marinella, Italy 3 Council for Research in Agriculture, Centre for the Study of Soil-Plant Relationships (CRA- RPS), Via della Navicella 2-4, I-00184 Rome, Italy 4 Agricultural Research Council, Unit of Climatology and Meteorology applied to Agriculture (CRA-CMA), Via del Caravita 7a, I-00186, Rome, Italy *Corresponding author e-mail: vsavo@uniroma3.it (Received 8 th February 2012; accepted 17 th February 2012) Abstract. Climate change is a major global issue that impacts vegetation, agriculture, biodiversity and human safety. These impacts are predicted to be intense in the Mediterranean region. The aim of this paper is to define how local climatic trends are affecting plant communities in the Tolfa-Cerite area (Northern Latium), which is a semi-coastal area with Mediterranean to broad-leaf vegetation. Climate data analysis covered a long time period (1951-2007), considering 18 gauging stations. Data were analyzed using geostatistical methods and descriptive statistics. Climate trends and drought indicators, in relation to different vegetation associations, were analyzed using the zonal statistic tool (ArcGIS). During the investigated period, rainfall showed a uniform decreasing trend, while temperature increased, with an irregular trend. The specialization of climatic data showed a shift towards a thermo-Mediterranean bioclimate. Local climatic trends showed to have more severe impacts on specific plant communities (mesophilous forests, endangered shrubland-pastures, relict associations of meadows, etc). The observed trends towards aridity occurred in many areas covered by vulnerable plant communities. Considering the predicted changes in climate conditions for the Mediterranean area, these communities will face a further aridity increase. A permanent monitoring of these communities may increase the effectiveness of conservation policies and sustainable regional planning. Keywords: Bioclimate analysis, climate change, Mediterranean plant communities, Italy Introduction Climate change is currently a major global concern since it could have heavy impacts on living beings, including humans (e.g., Thomas et al., 2004; Hoffman et al., 2009; Fiorillo and McCarthy, 2010). Projected impacts encompass a broad range of effects: the evolution of new plant associations (Jackson and Overpeck, 2000), shifts in the spatial distribution of tree species (e.g., Iverson and Prasad, 1998; Tchebakova et al., 2005; Téllez-Valdéz et al., 2006), animal and insect population decline or shifts (Parmesan et al., 1999; Gibbons et al., 2000; Bombi et al., 2009), reduced food availability and loss in agricultural yield (Ciais et al., 2003; Mendelsohn and Dinar, 2003; Eiji Maeda et al., 2010; Tirado et al., 2010). Many studies (Melillo et al., 1995; Bachelet et al., 2001; Hansen et al., 2001; Shafer et al., 2001; Neilson et al., 2005) agree