Vulnerability, Path Dependence, and Donor Leverage in African Democratic Experiments Caryn Peiffer, Claremont Graduate University Pierre Englebert, Pomona College Abstract: In this paper, we try to explain variations in African democratization trajectories by looking at the determinants of changes in civil liberties and human rights between the five-year period preceding 1990 and the five-year period ending in 2008. We find that the civil liberties and human rights performances of African governments respond to different factors. With regard to civil liberties, the initial transition following the Cold War largely determines subsequent trajectories. This initial transition is probably a function of regime vulnerability, as suggested by the effects of some other variables which capture vulnerability. There appears, however, to be some room for policy leverage by donors, as the organization of elections and democracy promotion aid may have some positive effects. However, elections no longer seem to matter after 1994. The degree of improvement in human rights is also largely determined in the first five years of democratization. Yet, the human rights performance of governments seems to be more immune to outside pressures—whether measured through commodity dependence, aid, or elections—and more a function of structural domestic variables such as ethnic and religious polarization. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings. Paper prepared for presentation at WGAPE, UCLA, 16-17 May 2009 Draft--Please do not quote or cite 1