Land use in the southern Yucata ´n peninsular region of Mexico: Scenarios of population and institutional change Steven Manson * University of Minnesota, Department of Geography, 414 Social Sciences, 267, 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA Received 9 June 2004; accepted 25 January 2005 Abstract Land-use and land-cover change, human activity that results in altered land-use systems and surface features, defines the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of commu- nities around the globe. It is a key response to global environmental change in addition to being both a key cause and medium of this change. This article examines an application of the Southern Yucata ´n Peninsular Region Integrated Assessment (SYPRIA), a scenario-based spatially explicit model designed to examine and project land use in Mexico. SYPRIA com- bines Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with agent-based modeling, cellular modeling, and genetic programming. The application examined here explores the effects on land-use and land-cover projections of scenarios that rely on varying assumptions pertaining to popu- lation growth, land-use trends, role of agrarian technology, and effects of resource institutions. This work also highlights the importance of understanding the many factors influencing land use, particularly population, different production systems, and the contextual nature of resource institutions in determining the nature of land use. Ó 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 0198-9715/$ - see front matter Ó 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2005.01.009 * Tel.: +1 612 625 4577; fax: +1 612 624 1044. E-mail address: manson@umn.edu Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 30 (2006) 230–253 www.elsevier.com/locate/compenvurbsys Reprint: Manson, S. M. (2006). Land use in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region of Mexico: scenarios of population and institutional change. Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems 33 (3): 230-253.