Rewarding Impatience: A Bargaining
and Enforcement Model of OPEC
Lisa Blaydes
Abstract In this article, I make two primary contributions to the literature on
international cooperation+ First, I present a simple version of Fearon’s bargaining
and enforcement model and show that impatience ~as captured in the discount fac-
tor! can be a source of bargaining strength when the outcome of the bargaining phase
is followed by an enforcement phase that resembles a prisoners’ dilemma+ Second,
I illustrate how to apply this model to the question of the division of cartel profits
within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ~OPEC!, particularly with
regard to the relationship between bargaining strength and disparate time horizons+
I find that for some critical threshold level, states that discount the future more heav-
ily tend to receive better oil production offers than those that do not+ I examine em-
pirical evidence that suggests that countries in OPEC fall into the range where this
proposition holds; in other words, relatively poor, populous countries and relatively
unstable ones are allowed by OPEC to overproduce+
Since the British sector of the North Sea came on line in 1975, many OPEC coun-
tries felt compelled to regain market share through rounds of unofficial discount-
ing and sanctioned price cuts+ By early 1983, the world oil market was in crisis,
and a complete price collapse appeared imminent when the British National Oil
Company further cut the price of North Sea crude by three dollars to thirty dollars
a barrel+
Of all the OPEC nations, Nigeria competed most directly with the British, as
both countries produced oil of similar grade and sold that oil predominantly to the
European market+ During the two-year period leading up to 1983, the Nigerian
government, a new democracy , watched as sales of its nation’s oil dropped from
two million to less than one-half million barrels a day + During this same period,
the government faced declining foreign exchange reserves, acute unemployment,
and elections scheduled for August 1983+ In an effort to drive down unemploy-
I am grateful to Christino Arroyo, Jim DeNardo, Joe Gochal, James Honaker, Shuhei Kurizaki, Drew
Linzer, Barry O’Neill, Art Stein, Hiroki Takeuchi, George Tsebelis, Jana von Stein, and two anony-
mous referees for helpful comments+ I am especially indebted to Ken Schultz for his advice and to
Randy Calvert for a helpful discussion during the 2003 EITM Summer Institute at Washington Uni-
versity in St+ Louis+
International Organization 58, Spring 2004, pp+ 213–237
© 2004 by The IO Foundation+ DOI: 10+10170S0020818304582012