_____________________________________________________________________ HGCA conference 2002: Agronomic intelligence: the basis for profitable production 13.1 Forecasting wheat quality and the breadmaking premium P S KETTLEWELL 1 , M D ATKINSON 1 , P D HOLLINS 1 , D B STEPHENSON 2 AND S T PARSONS 3 1 Crop and Environment Research Centre, Harper Adams University College, Newport, Shropshire TF10 8NB 2 Climate Analysis Group, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, P O Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB 3 Countryside Development Unit, Harper Adams University College, Newport, Shropshire TF10 8NB Summary Long-range forecasts of wheat quality and the bread-making premium can help decision-making for growers of Group 2 bread- making wheat varieties. These growers can use forecasts to decide whether or not extra inputs to achieve high protein and to protect quality will be worthwhile. Forecasts of quality can be made in spring from the known effect of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. The inclusion of economic and production data on wheat should enable the premium to be forecast. Introduction HGCA is funding a project to develop long-range forecasts of wheat specific weight and Hagberg falling number with further financial and in-kind support from seven companies: ADM Milling, Allied Mills/Weston Research Laboratories, Alvan Blanch, Hydro-Agri, PBIC Seeds, Rank Hovis, Syngenta. Initially, forecasts of national average quality are being developed, with regional forecasts to follow. The work is being extended to forecast the bread premium, since the harvest quality is an important component of the premium. Benefits of long-range forecasts Forecasts of quality will be useful for the milling industry in judging the supply of bread quality wheat. Forecasts of premium will be valuable to growers deciding whether to invest in the extra inputs needed to grow bread wheat. In particular, the NABIM Group 2 varieties such as Option, have the flexibility to be switched mid- season from aiming at a bread market to a feed market. They are high-yielding (for bread quality varieties) and so they can still produce a reasonable gross margin if the decision is made mid-season that the forecast premium is too low to justify further inputs aimed at achieving a bread premium. The forecasts will be available in March in time to make decisions on a wide range of costs involved in growing for a bread market. The main decisions are set out in Table 1.