759 ARTICLE Predictions as Lies in Ceará, Brazil: The Intersection of Two Cultural Models Karen Pennesi, University of Western Ontario ABSTRACT An examination of the interplay of cultural models of prediction and lie helps explain why climate forecasts are negatively evaluated by subsistence farm- ers in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Analysis of linguistic differences between farmers and meteorologists reveals underlying conceptual differences that result in farmers interpreting the forecasts as false statements. Distrust of government, the unmet expectation of optimistic predictions, and the exis- tence of alternative forecasts by traditional “rain prophets” create a context in which state meteorologists are called liars. Material context and emotions are shown to be crucial components of the models. [Keywords: Prediction, lie, cultural model, expert discourse, Northeast Brazil] Introduction In rural communities in Ceará, Northeast Brazil, the state’s Agency for Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME) is described as uma men- tirosa (a liar). Indeed, when discussing seasonal rain forecasts made by FUNCEME, subsistence farmers in Ceará commonly assert that FUNCEME habitually lies, as illustrated in comments such as: “That FUNCEME is a liar. They just come here and lie.” “FUNCEME are a bunch of fools always going around telling lies.” “FUNCEME lies to the government saying that there won’t be any rainy season.” While exploring interpretations of traditional Anthropological Quarterly, Vol. 86, No. 3, p. 759-790, ISSN 0003-5491. © 2013 by the Institute for Ethnographic Research (IFER) a part of the George Washington University. All rights reserved.