1 Modeling Cropland Allocation in the U.S. from 1997 to 2010: theory and empirical estimation L. Li a,* , P. V. Preckel a and J. S. Eales a a Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA * Corresponding author. Email: liangli@purdue.edu As the primary input to food production, allocation of cropland is an important factor in determining the supply of food. Modeling cropland change is vital in understanding how land is allocated among crops and predicting future land allocation patterns when economic conditions change. In this paper, we will include major crops in a coherent system and directly estimate a Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) function that governs the land allocation, which has not been done before. Despite the small number of observations, we find evidence in support of the nested CET structure as opposed to the single level CET that is used in many CGE models. I. Introduction World food prices increased dramatically in 2007 and 2008, directing nations’ attention to the issue of food security. As the primary input to food production, allocation of cropland is an important factor in determining the supply of food. Modeling cropland change is vital in understanding how land is allocated among crops and predicting future land allocation patterns when economic conditions change.