Document: High Education in 2035.doc Author: Angel Calderon Page 1 of 7 High Education in 2035 – The Ongoing Massification Angel Calderon, RMIT University May 2012 Introduction The purpose of this paper is to provide an estimate of the number of enrolments in higher education worldwide and by region to the year 2035. Against the background of this ongoing massification of higher education is the rapid transformation that has occurred in economic activity since 1950. As the world’s population has been increasing and many countries are reaching new heights in terms of economic development, there has been a rapid increase in the number of students participating in higher education worldwide. At the start of the 1900s, it was estimated there were 500,000 people enrolled in higher education worldwide 1 and by 1950 the number increased to more than 6.3 million 2 . The first country that experienced the massification of higher education was the United States 3 . In Europe an increase in participation in higher education was also evident following WW II where advances in the sciences, technology and industrialisation resulted in an increased in production and improved living standards 4 . These factors encouraged growth in participation in higher education in Europe, increasing considerably to the late 1970s. The expansion of higher education in the emerging countries of Asia commenced later on and in more recent years the rapid expansion in Latin America has taken place. Globally, the number of students who have undertaken studies at the higher education level increased dramatically over the period from 1970 to 2000. In 1970 there were 28.6 million students compared to 99.5 million in 2000, according to statistics from UNESCO 5 – an increase of 248%. In a period of accelerating transformation in many facets of economic and human activity, this significant growth manifests the massification of higher education in a global context. Yet, the growth that is occurring over the 30 years from 2000 to 2030 is likely to be higher than that experienced between 1970 and 2000. The number of students enrolled in higher education by 2030 it is estimated to increase from 99.4 million in 2000 to 414.2 million in 2030 – an increase of 314% over the next 30-year period. If an extra 5 years are added to these projections, the number of students pursuing higher education by 2035 is likely to exceed 520 million. Based on the projections that have been considered, the number of students is likely to reach the half a billion mark somewhere around 2034-35. Table 1: Global higher education enrolments, actual 1970 to 2005 and projected to 2035 Year Enrolments ('000) Period growth 1970 28,558 248% 1730% 1980 47,494 1990 66,912 2000 99,485 314% 2005 138,408 278% 2010 171,603 … 2030 412,196 2035 522,526