1 ɇȿɁȺȻȺȼɇɂ ɂ ȾɂɇȺɆɂɑɇɂ ȿФȿКɌɂ ɉɊɂ ɇȺɋЪɊɑȺȼȺɇȿ ɇȺ ɉɊɈȾȺɀȻɂɌȿ – КɈɇɐȿɉɐɂЯ ɂ ɂɁɆȿɊȼȺɇȿ ɝɥ.ɚɫ. ɞ-ɪ Аɬɚɧɚɫ Ʌɭɢɡɨɜ IMMEDIATE AND DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF SALES PROMOTION – CONCEPT AND MEASUREMENT Chief Assistant Atanas Luizov, Ph.D. Аɧɨɬɚɰɢɹ: ȼ ɫɬɚɬɢяɬɚ ɫɟ ɩɪɚɜɢ ɩɪɟɝɥɟɞ ɧɚ ɞɟɮɢɧɢɰɢɢɬɟ ɧɚ ɧɟɡɚɛɚɜɧɢɬɟ ɢ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɧɢ ɟɮɟɤɬɢ ɩɪɢ ɧɚɫъɪɱɚɜɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢɬɟ.. Пɪɟɞɥɚɝɚɬ ɫɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɢ ɡɚ ɬяɯɧɨɬɨ ɢɡɦɟɪɜɚɧɟ ɢ ɫɟ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜяɬ ɪɟɡɭɥɬɚɬɢ ɨɬ ɟɦɩɢɪɢɱɧɨ ɢɡɫɥɟɞɜɚɧɟ. Ʉɥɸɱɨɜɢ ɞɭɦɢ: ɧɚɫъɪɱɚɜɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢɬɟ, ɧɟɡɚɛɚɜɧɢ ɢ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɧɢ ɟɮɟɤɬɢ, ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɧɚ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɧɢ ɪɟɞɨɜɟ Annotation: This paper represents deffinitions of immediate and dynamic effect of sales promotion. We propose methods for measurement of these effects and results of an empirical study. Key words: sales promotion, immediate and dynamic effects, time-series analysis ȼ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹɬɚ ɧɚ ɢɧɬɟɧɡɢɜɧɚ ɩɪɨɦɨɰɢɨɧɚɥɧɚ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬ ɫ ɢɡɩɨɥɡɜɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɢ ɧɚɫɴɪɱɢɬɟɥɧɢ ɬɟɯɧɢɤɢ, ɩɪɨɜɟɠɞɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɤɚɦɩɚɧɢɢ ɩɪɟɡ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɢ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɢ ɨɬ ɝɨɞɢɧɚɬɚ, ɫɬɚɜɚ ɢɡɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɧɨ ɬɪɭɞɧɨ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɢ ɬɨɱɧɚ ɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɧɚ ɟɮɟɤɬɚ ɨɬ ɩɪɨɦɨɰɢɢɬɟ ɜɴɪɯɭ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢɬɟ. Ⱦɚɧɧɢɬɟ ɡɚ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢɬɟ ɡɚ ɦɢɧɚɥɢ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɢ ɫɴɳɨ ɦɨɝɚɬ ɞɚ ɫɴɞɴɪɠɚɬ ɩɢɤɨɜɟ ɢ ɫɩɚɞɨɜɟ, ɤɨɢɬɨ ɞɚ ɫɚ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɬɚɬ ɧɚ ɤɨɧɤɭɪɟɧɬɧɚ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬ, ɧɨ ɫɴɳɨ ɢ ɤɚɬɨ ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɟ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɦɨɰɢɢ ɧɚ ɞɪɭɝɢ ɫɬɨɤɢ ɨɬ ɩɪɨɞɭɤɬɨɜɢɹ ɦɢɤɫ ɧɚ ɞɚɞɟɧ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɢɬɟɥ ɢɥɢ ɬɴɪɝɨɜɟɰ. ȼ ɞɨɤɥɚɞɚ ɫɟ ɩɪɚɜɢ ɩɪɟɝɥɟɞ ɧɚ ɤɥɚɫɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢɬɟ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɦɨɰɢɨɧɚɥɧɢɬɟ ɟɮɟɤɬɢ ɫɩɨɪɟɞ ɜɪɟɦɟɬɨ ɧɚ ɬɹɯɧɨɬɨ ɩɪɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɟ. ɉɪɟɞɥɚɝɚɬ ɫɟ ɦɨɞɟɥ ɡɚ ɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɧɚ ɧɟɡɚɛɚɜɧɢɬɟ ɟɮɟɤɬɢ, ɢɡɩɨɥɡɜɚɳ ɥɨɝɢɤɚɬɚ ɧɚ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɢɱɧɢɬɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ. Ɍɨɣ ɟ ɪɚɡɲɢɪɟɧ ɫ ɜɤɥɸɱɜɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɧɢ ɟɮɟɤɬɢ ɨɬ ɩɪɨɦɨɰɢɹɬɚ. Ⱦɴɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɧɢɬɟ ɟɮɟɤɬɢ ɫɟ ɩɪɨɜɟɪɹɜɚɬ ɫ ɬɟɫɬ ɡɚ ɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɨɫɬ ɧɚ Ɏɢɥɢɩɫ-ɉɟɪɨɧ (PСТХХТps-Perron (PP) test) ɢɥɢ Ⱦɢɤɢ–Ɏɭɥɴɪ (AuРmОntОН DТМФОв-Fuller (ADF) test). ɉɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɟɧɢɬɟ ɦɟɬɨɞɢ ɡɚ ɢɡɦɟɪɜɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɟɮɟɤɬɢɬɟ ɫɚ ɢɥɸɫɬɪɢɪɚɧɢ ɫ ɪɟɡɭɥɬɚɬɢ ɨɬ ɟɦɩɢɪɢɱɧɨ ɩɪɨɭɱɜɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɟɞɧɚ ɦɚɪɤɚ ɜ ɤɚɬɟɝɨɪɢɹɬɚ FMCG. ɋɩɨɪɟɞ ɩɨɹɜɚɬɚ ɜɴɜ ɜɪɟɦɟɬɨ ɟɮɟɤɬɢɬɟ ɨɬ ɧɚɫɴɪɱɟɧɢɟɬɨ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢɬɟ ɦɨɝɚɬ ɞɚ ɫɟ ɪɚɡɞɟɥɹɬ ɧɚ: ɧɟɡɚɛɚɜɧɢ, ɤɪɚɬɤɨɫɪɨɱɧɢ ɢ ɞɴɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɧɢ. Ɉɬɧɨɫɧɨ ɬɟɡɢ ɩɨɧɹɬɢɹ ɧɟ ɫɴɳɟɫɬɜɭɜɚ ɟɞɢɧɧɨ ɪɚɡɛɢɪɚɧɟ. Ʌɢɦ (LТm), Ʉɴɪɢɦ (CurrТm) ɢ ȿɧɞɪɸɫ (AnНrОаs) 1 ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɹɬ ɤɚɬɨ ɧɟɡɚɛɚɜɟɧ ɟɮɟɤɬ ɜɫɢɱɤɢ ɩɪɨɦɟɧɢ ɜ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢ ɩɨ ɜɪɟɦɟ ɧɚ ɧɚɫɴɪɱɢɬɟɥɧɚ ɚɤɰɢɹ. ȼ ɫɜɨɟɬɨ ɢɡɫɥɟɞɜɚɧɟ ɬɟ ɫɥɚɝɚɬ ɡɧɚɤ ɧɚ ɪɚɜɟɧɫɬɜɨ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɧɟɡɚɛɚɜɟɧ ɢ ɤɪɚɬɤɨɫɪɨɱɟɧ ɟɮɟɤɬ. ȿɞɢɧ ɨɬ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɢɬɟ ɢɡɜɨɞɢ ɨɬ ɩɨɜɟɱɟɬɨ ɢɡɫɥɟɞɜɚɧɢɹ ɧɚ ɰɟɧɨɜɢ ɩɪɨɦɨɰɢɢ ɟ, ɱɟ ɤɪɚɬɤɨɫɪɨɱɧɢɹɬ ɟɮɟɤɬ ɟ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɟɧ. Ɉɬɱɢɬɚ ɫɟ ɜɢɫɨɤɚ ɰɟɧɨɜɚ ɟɥɚɫɬɢɱɧɨɫɬ, ɜɴɩɪɟɤɢ ɱɟ ɬɹ ɫɟ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɚɜɚ ɫɪɟɞ ɩɨɬɪɟɛɢɬɟɥɢ ɨɬ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɢ ɫɟɝɦɟɧɬɢ. ɍɫɩɟɯɴɬ ɧɚ ɟɞɧɚ ɤɚɦɩɚɧɢɹ ɡɚ ɧɚɫɴɪɱɚɜɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢɬɟ ɡɚɜɢɫɢ ɧɟ ɫɚɦɨ ɨɬ ɤɪɚɬɤɨɫɪɨɱɧɢɹ ɟɮɟɤɬ, ɤɨɣɬɨ ɬɹ ɨɤɚɡɜɚ ɜɴɪɯɭ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢɬɟ, ɧɨ ɢ ɨɬ ɨɫɬɚɬɴɱɧɢɹ ɟɮɟɤɬ ɢɥɢ ɞɴɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɟɧ ɟɮɟɤɬ. Ɇɢɥɚ (MОХК), Ƚɭɩɬɚ ɢ Ʌɟɦɚɧ (LОСmКnn) 2 ɜ ɫɜɨɟɬɨ ɩɪɨɭɱɜɚɧɟ ɨɬ 1997 ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɹɬ ɤɚɬɨ ɞɴɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɟɧ ɟɮɟɤɬ ɨɬ ɧɚɫɴɪɱɚɜɚɧɟɬɨ ɧɚ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢɬɟ „ɤɭɦɭɥɚɬɢɜɧɢɹ ɟɮɟɤɬ ɜɴɪɯɭ ɢɡɛɨɪɚ ɧɚ ɦɚɪɤɚ, ɩɪɨɞɴɥɠɚɜɚɳ ɧɹɤɨɥɤɨ ɝɨɞɢɧɢ”. Ⱦɟɤɢɦɩ (DОФТmpО), ɏɚɧɫɟɧɫ (HКnssОns) ɢ ɋɢɥɜɚ-Ɋɢɫɨ (SТХvК-Risso) 3 ɩɪɢɥɚɝɚɬ ɞɪɭɝ ɩɨɞɯɨɞ ɩɪɢ ɢɡɫɥɟɞɜɚɧɟ ɧɚ ɞɴɥɝɨɫɪɨɱɧɢɬɟ ɟɮɟɤɬɢ ɨɬ ɰɟɧɨɜɢ ɩɪɨɦɨɰɢɢ. ɉɴɪɜɨ, ɬɟ ɪɚɡɞɟɥɹɬ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢɬɟ ɧɚ ɞɜɚ ɜɢɞɚ – ɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɢ ɢ ɧɟɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɢ (ɪɚɡɜɢɜɚɳɢ ɫɟ – ОvoХvТnР). Ʉɚɬɨ ɫɬɚɰɢɨɧɚɪɧɢ ɫɟ ɨɬɱɢɬɚɬ ɜɫɢɱɤɢ ɩɪɨɞɚɠɛɢ, ɤɨɢɬɨ ɫɥɟɞ ɧɚɫɴɪɱɟɧɢɟɬɨ ɫɟ ɡɚɜɪɴɳɚɬ ɤɴɦ ɬɹɯɧɨɬɨ ɫɪɟɞɧɨ ɪɚɜɧɢɳɟ ɨɬ ɩɪɟɞɢ ɤɚɦɩɚɧɢɹɬɚ. ɉɪɢ 1 Lim, J., I.Currim, R.Andrews, Consumer Heterogeneity in the Longer-term Effects of Price Promotions, International Journal of Marketing Research 22, 2005, 444 - 457 2 Mela, C., S.Gupta, D.Lehmann, The Long-Term Impact of Promotion and Advertising on Consumer Brand Choice, Journal of Marketing Research, 34 (2), 1997, pp. 241 - 261 3 Dekimpe, M., D.Hanssens, J.Silva-Risso, Long-run Effects of Price Promotions in Scanner Markets, Journal of Econometrics, 89(1/2), 1999, pp. 269 - 291