TC-SIM LONDON CHARTS MAPS PRINT SCREEN NEW SAVE LOAD PACKAGE SELECTION i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i $ 30 PP8 “ Smart er Choices” Soft Measures User Informat ion Carbon Reduction Cluster name: Name: Brian.smith ADD / EDIT COMMENTS Role: Complacent Car Addict s -45% -60% Target Current Date: 2025 BACKCASTING FOR LOW CARBON TRANSPORT – LONDON & DELHI University of Oxford, 4 Degrees and Beyond Conference 28-30 September 2009, St Anne’s College Dr Robin Hickman Professor David Banister Transport Studies Unit School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, England robin.hickman@ouce.ox.ac.uk 1. Introduction Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO2 emission reduction targets. This paper reports on the findings of the recent VIBAT (Visioning and Backcasting for Transport) series of studies (www.vibat.org) which explore the options of the transport sector in reducing CO2 emissions in various contexts. The case studies discussed are in Europe (London, UK) and Asia (Delhi, India). The analysis considers the common objectives for transport CO2 reduction, but the very different baselines, targets and pathways towards sustainability. Strategic direction: • A peak in emissions within 10 years • Global reduction in CO2 emissions of 50% from 1990 levels (from over 50 GtCO2e now – to 20 GtCO2e) • Developed countries: an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions on 1990 levels – to 2 tonnes per capita per annum – by 2050 (UK has this as a target – Climate Change Act 2008) • Say transport accounts for 25% of CO2 emissions – aiming for 0.5 tonnes per capita within transport • Issues: An equitable target (and budget?) for all cities/jurisdictions? With some tradeable element? 2. Case Study: London Objective: mapping the pathways towards a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions in the transport sector in London by 2030 and 80% by 2050 • A range of policy packages • Level of application • Target achieved/ achievable? Potential Scenarios • BAU 2030: This future is an extension of existing trends over the next 20 years – some investment in public transport , limited change in the efficiency of the car stock and in the use of alternative fuels, but there is no coherent strategy for accelerated change. • Scenario 1: Lower carbon driving: Seeks an approx. 40% reduction in transport CO2 emissions, on 1990 levels. However , this is reliant on an ambitious implementation of technological measures (low emission motor vehicles and alternative fuels - 95gCO2/km). • Scenario 2: More active travel: Seeks an approx. 40% reduction in transport CO2 emissions, on 1990 levels. However, it is less optimistic about the potential implementation of low carbon vehicles and relies more on public transport, walking and cycling and smarter choice investment. • Scenario 3: Sustainable travel: This scenario combines the best technological and behavioural applica tion of scenarios 1 and 2 to deliver an approx. 80% reduction in transport CO2 emissions, on 1990 levels. It is very optimistic about levels of application of policy levers. Figure 2. Passenger Km (London) 3. Case Study: Delhi Objective: mapping the pathways towards reducing the projected growth in CO2 emissions in the transport sector in Delhi by 2030 and 2050 • A range of policy packages • Level of application • Target achieved/ achievable? Figure 4. Baseline and Projection (Delhi Transport Sector) Potential Scenarios • BAU 2030: This future is an extension of existing trends over the next 20 years – some investment in public transport , limited change in the efficiency of the car stock and in the use of alternative fuels. Large projected growth in traffic. • Scenario 1: Lower carbon driving: A strong and successful push on technological innovation, including low emission vehic les, alternative fuels and smaller vehicle types. Seeks an approx. 500% increase in CO2 emissions on 1990 levels (BAU is 700% increase) • Scenario 2: More active travel: Less optimistic about the potential implementation of low carbon vehicles and relies more on public transport, walking and cycling investment and behavioural measures. Seeks an approx. 300% increase in CO2 emissions on 1990 levels (BAU is 700% increase) • Scenario 3: Sustainable travel: This scenario combines the best technological and behavioural applica tion of scenarios 1 and 2 to deliver an approx. 200% increase in transport CO2 emissions, on 1990 levels. It is very optimistic about levels of application of policy levers. Figure 5. Passenger Km (Delhi) 4. Conclusions Different packages of measures are selected for each city consistent with equitable [and deep] emission reduction objectives. London can deliver deep tonne per person reductions on current transport CO2 emission levels; Delhi can break the huge projected rises in transport CO2 emissions. A backcasting study approach is used, testing the likely impacts of alternative images of the future for 2030 and 2050. A transport and carbon simulation model (TC-SIM) is also developed for London. Within this, users are able to consider a series of potential policy packages - low emission vehicles, alternative fuels, pricing regimes, public transport, walking and cycling, etc - and select variable levels of application to help achieve strategic CO2 emission reduction targets. In Practice • Within UK and elsewhere: much debate – but little action – the transport sector needs to URGENTLY ACCELERATE its efforts • Some cities, such as London, providing a lead. • [60-80% ] [per capita] target is very ambitious: little understanding of pathways to achieve these Wider Contexts • LTP3 and transport/urban strategy preparation • National and city contributions to global agreements • Enhancing discussion and ownership – involving decision-makers and the public (simulation gaming/modelling) Figure 7. Different Contexts; Common Futures . Acknowledgements Many thanks to the UrbanBuzz programme (www.urbanbuzz.org) for funding the VIBAT London study (UCL, UeL, HEFCE and DIUS, 2007-09) and the Asian Development Bank for funding the VIBAT India and Delhi scoping study (ADB, 2008) – the basis of much of the data used in this paper. Also wider team members who have helped develop the work in the VIBAT series of studies (www.vibat.org – from Halcrow and University of Oxford, Transport Studies Unit. The views expressed in this paper are of course from the authors and do not necessarily reflect those from the project funders. References Akerman, J. and Höjer, M. (2006) How Much Transport Can the Climate Stand? Sweden on a Sustainable Path in 2050, Energy Policy 34 (14): 1944-1957. Banister, D. (2008) The sustainable mobility paradigm. Transport Policy, 15: 73-80. GLA (Greater London Authority) (2004) The London Plan. London: GLA. 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Ministry of Urban Development . 12 8 4 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2025 14 10 6 2 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO 2 ) 2006 9.92 MtCO2 Today 9.60 MtCO2 11.70 MtCO2 BAU 2025 7.94 MtCO2 3.97 MtCO2 1.98 MtCO2 Target for London = 60% by 2025 10 Year Target = 20% by 2016 Target = 80% by 2050 2016 Year 16 PP1: Low Emission Vehicles PP2: Alternative Fuels PP3: Pricing Regimes PP4: Public Transport PP5: Walking & Cycling PP6: Urban Planning PP7: ICT & Travel PP8: Soft Measures PP9: Ecological Driving & Slower Speeds PP10: Long Distance Travel Substitution PP11: Freight Planning PP12: International Air Travel EM1: Carbon Rationing EM2: Oil Prices SYO: Synergies Figure 1. Baseline and Projection (London Transport Sector) Figure 3. Transport Per Capita CO2 Emissions (London) 24 16 8 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 28 20 12 4 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO 2 ) 2006 3.12 MtCO2 6.15 MtCO2 Year 32 26.30 MtCO2 BAU 2030 9.46 MtCO2 Aspiration for Delhi = +200% on 1990 (64% reduction on BAU) PP1: Low Emission Vehicles PP2: Alternative Fuels PP3: Vehicle Class Market Share (car/SUV/2 or 3 wheeler) PP4: Public Transport PP5: Walking & Cycling PP6: Urban Planning PP7: Wider Behavioural Interventions PP8: Freight Transport SYO: Synergies Figure 6. Transport Per Capita CO2 Emissions (Delhi) . Ak ld Optimised future policy packages are defined for 2030 and 2050 and a working methodology that can be applied to wider cities. A deep reduction in transport CO2 emissions is theoretically possible in all cities, yet practically very difficult to achieve. The main perceived problem is in engendering an interest in the public to change con- sumer purchases and behaviours. The huge challenge is to map out and widen the debate on potential pathways, enabling a level of consumer and behavioural change consistent with strategic aspiration