A Leader Without Followers? The Growing Divergence Between the Regional and Global Performance of Brazilian Foreign Policy Andrés Malamud ABSTRACT Brazilian diplomats and academics alike have long regarded regional leadership as a springboard to global recognition. Yet Brazil’s foreign policy has not translated the country’s structural and instrumental resources into effective regional leadership. Brazil’s potential followers have not aligned with its main goals, such as a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and Directorship-Gen- eral of the World Trade Organization; some have even challenged its regional influence. Nevertheless, Brazil has been recognized as an emergent global power. This article analyzes the growing mis- match between the regional and global performance of Brazilian foreign policy and shows how both theoretical expectations and policy planning were “luckily foiled” by unforeseen developments. It argues that because of regional power rivalries and a relative paucity of resources, Brazil is likely to consolidate itself as a middle global power before gaining acceptance as a leader in its region. All regional powers that aspire to become global protagonists . . . must first be legitimated at the regional level since they do not possess enough material capacity or soft power to act autonomously in international politics. —Maria Regina Soares de Lima, Brazilian IR scholar, Fall 2008 No Governo Lula, a América do Sul será nossa prioridade. —Celso Amorim, Lula’s foreign minister, January 1, 2003 B razilian diplomats and academics alike have long regarded regional leadership as a springboard to global recognition and influence. But while the strategic goal of becoming a legitimate regional leader has failed, the ultimate goal of becoming an intermediate world power has fared better. This article analyzes the growing mismatch between the regional and global performance of Brazil’s foreign policy in order to answer two questions. First, what are the causes of this divergence? The explanation may be structural conditions—e.g., a larger and growing economy in regard to smaller or laggard neighbors; or policy behavior— a change in the diagnoses or the perceptions of the Brazilian foreign policy elite, whose interests or confidence in the region may diminish © 2011 University of Miami