 Science Road. All rights reserved  Investing risk prediction by using of multistage combination techniques ANFIS and DEMATEL Suzan Taghavi, Hamed Saremi, Solmaz Taghavi Management Department, Tehran Central Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran Abstract This study by using of fuzzy approach has attempted to model for predicting the risk of foreign investment in a fuzzy environment developed for this purpose, at first, the variables are classified in 4 categories (42 variables) and according to experts’ opinions, their importance is identified by DEMATEL technique that it is reduced to 20 variables and classified to 4 groups, and considered as an input. Following the classification each with by using membership functions of linguistic variables were transformed into qualitative variables. Each variable in the fuzzy sign in fuzzy networks finally, each of the output variables of the fuzzy system derived. After the Create 4-fuzzy network, each output results as an affecting factor on main risk associated with specific weight and then the weight relation each of the small risks, the main risks was obtain. The end Abadan refinery (in petrochemical industry) is evaluated as a case study and the rate of investing risk in Abadan refinery is equal to 0.6836 Key Words: Investment, Predicate Risk, ANFIS, DEMATEL, SIMULINK 1. Introduction An important factor of economic growth and development of countries is to supply enough capital for financing investment. Accordingly, developing countries have tried to aggregate capital through internal resources or complete it by foreign investment (Mazher 2012). In the history, foreign investment plays important role in development of many countries but world and domestic macroeconomic policies have caused in the recent decade to reverse the resources transmission in the world, from underdeveloped to developed countries (Karim, 2012). The capital moved from developed countries is called foreign investment, and exit of capital from underdeveloped countries is referred to as capital flight (Ghazali, 2011). Economic development requires investment in different economic sectors and activities. Failure in investment in infrastructural and super-structural projects will not lead the expectation of development of employment, production and economic welfare (Abidinb, 2012). Therefore, capital, as well as manpower and frequent natural resources, is necessary for start up of production cycle in combination to other factors (McNally, 2010). The first phase of attraction of investors is to offer clear, definite and clear information of investment opportunities, assess industrial, commercial and service needs, present statistics and information of market status of goods & industrial service, supply and demand, price, technology, market developments, and provide explanatory and professional plans for investors. The experiences of successful countries in attracting foreign investment are the most important factor which can help the policy makers to attract foreign investment furthermore (Abidinb, 2012). In addition, the separation of policies of attracting domestic from foreign investments is an incorrect imagination, because the more economic powers and abilities of companies of a country or a province, the more successful that country or province is in capital attraction. Moreover, establishment of foreign investment attraction unions in provinces or country shall support domestic and foreign investors in a necessarily parallel form (Saso Korunovskia, 2012). Changing business environment and making purposeful the incentive policies and freedom of monetary and financial market of countries, and paying specific attention to small and middle Science Road Publishing Corporation Trends in Social Science ISSN: 2251-967X TSS 9(1) 22-33, 2013 Journal homepage: http://www.sciroad.com/tss.html