African Renaissance Vol. 8, Nos 3 & 4,2011 pp 34-54 Northern Africa, Arabian Springs, Oil and Arrogance: New uses for R2P in Africa Ian Liebenberg* Abstract Libya is different from Tunisia and Egypt and social disturbances received immediate interventionist treatment from France, the UK and the USA. This contribution investigates the reasons for this and the foreseeable outcomes as well as implications for other (non-pliant) African and Arab states. The author argues that what we see now is not conspiracy. It is about the forceful re-assertion of long-standing European/USA mentalities that stem from the past and under current economic conditions and the implosion of the USA and Western econo- mies will lead to a more forceful and militarist projection of foreign policy by the USA and its loyal European juniors against others. Keywords: Operation Unified Protector, R2P, UN Resolution 1973, Gadaffi, Libyan rebels, Africa Roadmap to Peace, R2P, Clinton, USA, Obama, Bush, Reagan, Rice. Introduction If one writes on superpowers and international politics and others differ from the standard mantras offered, the first criticism is that the author is caught up in conspiracy thinking. Let us put the record straight; this contribution is not about conspiracy theory, it is about long set mentali- ties and predictable patterns in international relations in a contemporary globalised world. In an article in a South African newspaper two months ago I suggested that Gadaffi will be dragged to The Hague, but qualified it by suggesting that NATO will welcome, if not arrange an "unfortunate shooting incident" to speed up Gadaffi's "permanent removal from society". 1 In the article I implied that Louis Moreno-Ocampo and co- incumbents in The Hague may investigate such an "unfortunate" inci- 34