113 PENETAPAN LUAS LAHAN OPTIMUM USAHATANI PADI SAWAH MENDUKUNG KEMANDIRIAN PANGAN BERKELANJUTAN DI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT Nazam, M., S. Sabiham, B. Pramudya, Widiatmaka, dan I W. Rusastra PENETAPAN LUAS LAHAN OPTIMUM USAHATANI PADI SAWAH MENDUKUNG KEMANDIRIAN PANGAN BERKELANJUTAN DI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT c¡‡¡‒«ƒ‹\‡ƒ›‹ ¢›‒ nfi‡ƒ«·« k\‹~ `‒¡\ ›¢ qƒ|¡ e\‒«ƒ‹£ h‹ n‒~¡‒ ‡› r·fifi›‒‡† r·†‡\ƒ‹\‘“¡ e››~ r¡“¢Lr·¢¢ƒ|ƒ¡‹|„ ƒ‹ v¡†‡ m·†\ s¡‹££\‒\ Nazam, M 1 , S. Sabiham 2 , B. Pramudya 2 , Widiatmaka 2 dan I W. Rusastra 3 1 Peneliti Pada Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian NTB; 2 Guru Besar dan Lektor Muda pada Institut Pertanian Bogor; dan 3 Professor Riset pada PSE-KP Bogor ABSTRACT Food self-sufficiency is currently a complicated issue and it can’t be solved partially. Determining an optimum land area size for rice farming to support sustainable food self- sufficiency is a strategic means. This study aims to determine the optimum land area size for rice farming to support sustainable food self-sufficiency in the Province of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB). The research uses the methods of multi-dimensional scaling, prospective analysis, farmers’ basic needs analysis, and a dynamic model using Powersim 2.5d validated by MAPE. The results showed that the index value of rice production system is 54.53% which is relatively sustainable. The most influential factors are land conversion, population growth, standard paddy-field area, rice price, government policy, harvested area, irrigation network, capital, and farmers’ income. Minimum land area to meet farmers’ basic needs in NTB is 0.73 ha per household. On the other hand, current farmers’ land holding average is 0.48 ha per household. Contribution of households’ income from rice farming to meet their basic needs is 55.73%. Using a pessimistic scenario, it shows that NTB will have a rice deficit by 2017. The most rational scenario to achieve rice self-sufficiency in this province is based on a moderate scenario, i.e. maintaining land area for rice farm of 196,330 hectares in 2023 out of 239,127 hectares in 2010. Key words: rice, paddy field, food self- reliance, sustainability ABSTRAK Mencukupi kebutuhan pangan masih merupakan masalah yang kompleks, sehingga tidak bisa dipecahkan secara parsial. Penetapan luas lahan optimum usahatani padi sawah adalah langkah strategis untuk mencapai kemandirian pangan secara berkelanjutan. Penelitian bertujuan menetapkan luas lahan optimum usahatani padi sawah mendukung kemandirian pangan berkelanjutan di NTB. Analisis yang digunakan meliputi analisis indeks dan status keberlanjutan dengan metode Multi-dimensional Scaling, analisis prospektif, analisis kebutuhan hidup layak petani, dan formulasi struktur model dinamik menggunakan Powersim 2.5d yang divalidasi uji MAPE. Hasil analisis menunjukkan nilai indeks sistem produksi padi sawah di NTB 54,53 persen dengan status cukup berkelanjutan. Faktor yang paling berpengaruh adalah konversi lahan