FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 8 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Subject to Final Copyedit 1 28 October 2013 Chapter 8. Urban Areas Coordinating Lead Authors Aromar Revi (India), David Satterthwaite (UK) Lead Authors Fernando Aragón-Durand (Mexico), Jan Corfee-Morlot (USA / OECD), Robert B.R. Kiunsi (United Republic of Tanzania), Mark Pelling (UK), Debra Roberts (South Africa), William Solecki (USA) Contributing Authors Jo da Silva (UK), David Dodman (Jamaica), Andrew Maskrey (UK), Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar (India), Raf Tuts (Belgium) Review Editors John Balbus (USA), Omar-Dario Cardona (Colombia) Volunteer Chapter Scientist Alice Sverdlik (USA) Contents Executive Summary 8.1. Introduction 8.1.1. Key Issues 8.1.2. Scope of the Chapter 8.1.3. Context – An Urbanizing World 8.1.4. Vulnerability and Resilience 8.1.4.1. Differentials in Risk and Vulnerability within and between Urban Centres 8.1.4.2. Understanding Resilience for Urban Centres in Relation to Climate Change 8.1.5. Conclusions from the Fourth Assessment (AR4) and New Issues Raised by this Chapter 8.2. Urbanization Processes, Climate Change Risks, and Impacts 8.2.1. Introduction 8.2.2. Urbanization – Conditions, Processes, and Systems within Cities 8.2.2.1. Magnitude and Connections to Climate Change 8.2.2.2. Spatial and Temporal Dimensions 8.2.2.3. Urbanization and Ecological Sustainability 8.2.2.4. Regional Differences and Context-Specific Risks 8.2.3. Climate Change and Variability – Primary (Direct) and Secondary (Indirect) Impacts 8.2.3.1. Urban Temperature Variation: Means and Extremes 8.2.3.2. Drought and Water Scarcity: Means and Extremes 8.2.3.3. Coastal Flooding, Sea Level Rise, and Storm Surge 8.2.3.4. Inland Flooding and Hydrological and Geo-Hydrological Hazards at Urban Scale 8.2.3.5. Emerging Human Health, Disease, and Epidemiology Issues in Cities 8.2.4. Urban Sectors: Exposure and Sensitivity 8.2.4.1. Water Supply, Wastewater, and Sanitation 8.2.4.2. Energy Supply 8.2.4.3. Transportation and Telecommunications 8.2.4.4. Built Environment, and Recreation and Heritage Sites 8.2.4.5. Green Infrastructure and Ecosystem Services 8.2.4.6. Health and Social Services 8.2.5. Urban Transition to Resilience and Sustainability