Aerlines ENVIRONMENTAL ESSAY Aviation Policy Options for Not Exceeding the EU +2 C Threshold This essay discusses the disjuncture between EU aviation emissions growth in recent decades and the EU climate change commitment to not excee- ding a 2 ◦ C rise in global mean surface tempera- ture above the pre-industrial level (EC, 2007a). We particularly discuss the roles of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and the Clean Develop- ment Mechanism (CDM). We also comment on how the current downturn in air passenger num- bers in the EU compares to the reduced level of passenger demand in the EU that would be com- patible with ‘safe’ climate targets. Introduction This essay discusses the disjuncture between EU aviation emissions growth in recent decades and the EU climate change commitment to not exceeding a 2 °C rise in global mean sur- face temperature above the pre-industrial level (EC, 2007a). We particularly discuss the roles of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). We also comment on how the current downturn in air passenger numbers in the EU compares to the reduced level of passenger demand in the EU that would be compatible with ‘safe’ climate targets. Our view is that reconciling growth in European aviation emissions with EU ETS will require that Certiied Emissions Reductions from the CDM (or Emissions Reductions Units from Joint Implementation) form a substantial proportion of EU ETS trade. We consider this strategy to be politically dis- ingenuous and likely to fail to stimulate the necessary domes- tic technological and systems innovations, not to mention the behavioural changes, which are needed throughout industrial economies to avoid ‘dangerous climate change’. We argue that there should be a more honest debate of the trade-offs necessary to meet the 2°C commitment. Speciically, we take the view that emissions reductions should occur wholly or primarily within the EU; that there should be an accelerated research, development and deployment programmes for avia- tion; that supplementary instruments are necessary to address the non-CO2 impacts of aviation emissions; and that for the next several decades, aviation growth rates will need to reduce substantially. This said, the level of demand reduction associ- ated with the current economic down-turn (a 0.2% reduction in total passenger trafic at European airports in 2008 com- pared with 2007) (ACI, 2009), is greater than that required to avoid +2 °C climate warming in our scenario modelling (see below). The downturn illustrates the type of unmanaged economic contraction that climate policy analysts are trying to avoid by arguing for early action towards smooth emis- sions contraction proiles. The longer these calls are ignored, however, the more likely are radical economic and climate discontinuities in coming decades, with associated adverse social consequences. Climate Science and Policy Context The EC Directive that includes aviation within EU ETS (EC, 2008) is to be welcomed, but its beneits will be largely condi- tional on the ways in which the wider EU ETS develops, par- ticularly the level of the cap. Taken as an initial step to build political consensus and to achieve commercial buy-in, the Di- rective is likely to prove successful. However, if that success is not rapidly followed by a tightly contracting EU ETS cap as described below, the EU will fail to honour its commitment to not exceeding the +2 °C threshold. In short, the Directive does not relect the urgency of the climate problem. Although the Commission has proposed that the EU pursues - in the context of international negotiations - the objective of a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by developed countries by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels), it also sees an expanded role for the CDM in this process (EC, e-zine edition 43 by: Dr. Paul Upham, Dr. Alice Bows, Prof. Kevin Anderson and Mr. John Broderick 1 ◦